Out On A Limb

Two days to go.  Frenetic activity. Non-stop campaigning.  He's bad, I'm good.  They're evil, I'm not. They hate America, we don't.  Their plan will destroy us, our plan will save us.  Blah, blah blah...  So what to believe and which way do we go?  For me it's a bit academic because I live in California and I'm a Republican.  So my vote (at least for President) doesn't count.  The left coast is safely in the camp of the Dems.

But I've been watching and reading.  Listening and thinking.  The conventional wisdom is that it's too close to call.  Supposedly the country is split down the middle and the winner will be decided on a razor's edge.  But I'm not so sure.  The conventional wisdom is also that an incumbent should have a large advantage.  Actually he should win in a walk.  Most people don't like change.  They don't want to upset the apple cart.

But the guy in there now has been mostly a disappointment, even to his supporters.  He's not come close to fulfilling his promises.  He's blamed his troubles on others.  He talks about his general plan for the future while weirdly ignoring the past four years.  He doesn't seem to understand what it takes to at least set us on a path to a better economy.  His performance as Commander in Chief has been, by almost all measures, not what is expected of the leader of the free world.  Worst of all, he's pitted Americans against Americans.

Of course, that's my view.  But strangely, I think there is an enthusiasm gap.  Like I said, I think many of his supporters have cooled in their ardor.  I think that a $16 Trillion deficit is really starting to worry people.  They are thinking that this problem really could have a devastating impact on our kids and their kids.  I think the novelty of his race has diminished...at some point, it has to be about competence.

So that's how I get out on my limb.  I'm not much of a gambler but sometimes I get a feeling.  And my feeling now is that Romney will win.  And I don't think it will be that close.  Landslide?  No.  But I think it won't be as close as all the "experts" predict.  But...I could be wrong.  Wouldn't be the first time and certainly not the last.  But I've just got a feeling...