IRAQ is Burning

It's impossible not to watch the unfolding story in Iraq without a measure of sadness, frustration, and outrage.  We all know the treasure and blood that the U.S. has poured into Iraq over the last few decades and for it to come to this is maddening and heartbreaking.

The terrorists have now taken some major cities in the North and are advancing on Baghdad.  And these are well organized, opportunistic, ideologically driven bad guys who want one thing...power.  I think we tend to put too much emphasis on the fact that these guys are radical Islamists.  They are that, but they are also thugs who want power.  They depend on terror and oppression, both economic and educational.  They have deep seated religious prejudices that have built up over centuries.  The Sunni/Shia hatred is real.  But so is the obsession with gaining power and shaping the world to their vision.  And that vision is squarely based in about the 7th century.  To think that we can simply turn the other cheek or conduct reasoned dialog with these guys is, in my view, naive in the extreme.

The media and the pundits are getting on the bandwagon that perhaps there is a lack of foreign policy expertise or even attention in this administration.  I've railed on this previously.  But now even those who have protected and coddled him are voicing some level of skepticism.  The disengagement, the announcement of our intentions, the rapid dearming, the apparent incompetence that has gripped our State Department...all these things and more put us in peril as we move forward as members of the world community.  To think that we are leaders is laughable.  We are not respected, we are not feared, we are not listened to, we are not reliable partners.  We have become like some inconsequential second rate country that huffs and puffs but has no stomach for leadership and no resources to prevail.  We are France!

I know there are many who believe the Iraq war was a monumental mistake but those people forget (or worse, recast) history.  The truth is we went in for what were good and solid reasons with support of a coalition and our own Congress.  The intelligence was wrong.  Simple as that.  Our military effort in the Iraq war was professionally and successfully executed.  But we lost the peace.  From the time we got to Baghdad and toppled the government, we stumbled and stumbled badly on the post-war Iraq rebuilding.  There is plenty of blame to go around for that but most of it lands squarely on Bush.  But he also deserves credit.  Credit for taking action.  Credit for staying the course.  Credit for the surge.  Credit for support to the troops.

Make no mistake, the events that are unfolding in the Middle East are a direct threat to our National Security.  How?  Let me count the ways:

• As a culture we generally believe in progress.  Education, clean air and water, human rights, the dignity of the individual, freedom of speech and religion, etc.   These people believe in none of that.  And as they spread their hatred and terror, all those things will take a hit.  As a people, can we just accept that oppression?
• Oil.  The old bugaboo.  Many say that now that we have discovered significant oil deposits in shale that we are no longer dependent on Middle East oil.  B.S.  We are less dependent, but still dependent to some degree.  Will it be a disaster if we can't get their oil because of the chaos in the region?  No.  But will it drive the prices sky high?  Yes.  And one of our best allies, Japan, would be mortally hurt.
• This will spread.  Already Syria and Iraq are almost lost causes.  Our friends the Kurds and the Turks will resist.  But they'll need help and I'm not sure we'll provide it.  Jordan is at great risk. Of course this means the threat to Israel increases.  These guys and the Iranians aren't friends so expect greater tension to include outright fighting.  It could spill across the Gulf to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states.  UAE and Qatar are busily arming themselves.  They aren't doing that for fun.  They want to be ready for these assholes.  And then it will spread East, South and West.  East to Europe where terrorism incidents will increase, South to Africa where we are already seeing a rise in "Islamic" terrorism, and West to places like Indonesia which is already a hotbed of Islamic terrorism.  And then onward.  So we stand and watch at our peril.  
• Just like in Afghanistan, we wanted out and are getting out.  Let them kill themselves.  But at some point in the future the stories will emerge.  The beheadings.  The killing of little girls because they attend school.  The hanging of a young man because he has dollars in his wallet.  The execution of a young family who dares to voice hope for the future.  And we will feel compelled to "do something".   But there will be little we can do.  If we do have the gumption to do something, it will come with an enormous price in both blood and treasure.
• The violent nature of this group who has no regard for human life and can only be successful by massive economic, educational and physical oppression, is repellent to us.  We don't have a sense of how to fight these assholes.  It's totally different to anything we've encountered.  A good example is the African girls that were kidnapped.  The best we could do is a campaign that relied on a hashtag.  Remember #BringBackOurGirls?  That really did a lot of good.  Oh yeah, we sent 10 people to help.  10 people!  Our culture is too self-obsessed, too focused on trivial things, too worried about which group is being given preferential treatment, too unwilling to do difficult things, to get engaged.  Especially under this administration.  This President likes to point out our differences.  He'd rather gain political favor with this or that group than try to pull us all together in the face of danger.  He likes to make sure we know he is working for the oppressed.  Of course, he's not really doing that...he only makes a speech about doing it.  And while he's doing that the rest of the world is descending into an ever more dangerous circumstance.  The terrorists are winning.  We better wake up.