Water Follies

Out here on the left coast there's a lot of angst about the drought and the ensuing water shortage.  Here in California our State Government has raised red flags regarding the impending disaster that the drought has caused.  There is no other issue in the Western U.S. than water so this gets a lot of attention.  There has been a lot of blame to go around, primarily aimed at greedy water users.  We've had stories about those unreasonable farmers who suck up all the water.  Or the wealthy in their enclaves who are using a disproportionate amount of water.  Or those dreaded golf courses that stupidly think they have a right to exist.  If it wasn't such a sad story of government gone terribly awry, it would be funny.

For all of you living in someplace other than the crazy fantasyland of California, the story is difficult to believe.  Here's the bottom line.  We do have a drought.  It's been going on for several years.  This drought is a fact of nature.  Throughout the ages we've had some years with an abundance of water and some years with too little water.  It goes in cycles.  This drought will be over at some point.  We also have a water shortage.  This water shortage is man made.  It can be blamed on four things.  First is that the population centers on the Coast use too much water in this semi-arid environment.  Water conservation has not been a priority.  Second, we have consistently resisted the construction of desalination plants.  They work.  Just ask the Israelis.  But for many reasons, most of them bureaucratic and idiotic, we haven't gone in that direction.  Third, the State hasn't had a major water project approved since the 1960's.  That's right.  The 1960's.  In a State where water is critical, the government has done nothing to modernize and increase our water supply in over 50 years.  And here's the best one.  The Delta Smelt.  The best explanation I've seen in a while was in the WSJ this morning.  So I've copied the whole thing for your reading pleasure.  You can read it and weep...like most sane people in California should be doing.  Or you can read it and laugh.  And that's probably what most people will do because after all, sometimes all you can do is laugh...

Forget the Missing Rainfall, California. Where’s the Delta Smelt?

Guided by bad science, regulators are flushing away millions of gallons of water to protect a three-inch fish.

By ALLYSIA FINLEY

April 26, 2015 5:58 p.m. ET

In California, it takes about 1.1 gallons of water to grow an almond; 1.28 gallons to flush a toilet; and 34 gallons to produce an ounce of marijuana. But how many gallons are needed to save a three-inch delta smelt, the cause célèbre of environmentalists and bête noire of parched farmers?

To protect smelt from water pumps, government regulators have flushed 1.4 trillion gallons of water into the San Francisco Bay since 2008. That would have been enough to sustain 6.4 million Californians for six years. Yet a survey of young adult smelt in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta last fall yielded just eight fish, the lowest level since 1967. An annual spring survey by state biologists turned up six smelt in March and one this month. In 2014 the fall-spring counts were 88 and 36. While the surveys are a sampling and not intended to suggest the full population, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service warns that “the delta smelt is now in danger of extinction.”

The agency acknowledges that its “existing regulatory mechanisms have not proven adequate” to arrest the fish’s decline since its listing under the Endangered Species Act in 1993 and that “we are unable to determine with certainty which threats or combinations of threats are directly responsible.”

Herein is a parable of imperious regulators who subordinate science to a green political agenda. While imposing huge societal costs, government policies have failed to achieve their stated environmental purpose.

The smelt population has been shrinking since the 1970s, with a few intermittent rebounds. In 2008 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a 396-page “biological opinion” identifying delta pumps, which export water to Central Valley farms and Southern California, as a major culprit in the smelt’s decline. The agency imposed stringent restrictions on water pumping based on regression models—for measuring variables—that purportedly correlated water flows with smelt killed.

In 2009 Central Valley farmers sued the Fish and Wildlife Service under the Administrative Procedure Act for failing to apply the “best available science.” In a 225-page decision in 2010, federal Judge Oliver Wanger skewered the federal agency for not conducting an environmental-impact statement, and for misapplying data and making unexplained assumptions. “The public cannot afford sloppy science and unidirectional prescriptions that ignore California’s water needs,” he wrote. The judge ordered the Fish and Wildlife Service to redo its “arbitrary, capricious and unlawful” regulations.

But last year the Ninth Circuit of Appeals—renowned for its liberal outlook—reversed the decision. The three-judge panel did rip the agency’s biological opinion as a “jumble of disjointed facts and analyses.” Yet the ruling said that the restrictive pumping limits were warranted to “counteract the uncertainties” of its scientific analyses. In other words: The government’s actions were justified by its sloppy science.

The smelt’s decline might not seem such a mystery today had government regulators more closely examined the science. For instance, a 2008 study by San Francisco State University researcher Wim Kimmerer—a paper used by the Fish and Wildlife Service to support its pumping restrictions—found that the sporadic population losses attributed to pumping during the winter and spring when smelt are spawning failed to take into account “subsequent 50-fold variability in survival from summer to fall” when the young fish are growing.

Other studies have noted that the biggest driver of species abundance in the delta is precipitation, which may explain why the smelt population has plummeted over the past four years of drought after rebounding in 2011—a wet year.

According to biologist Peter Moyle at the University of California, Davis, who has studied the delta ecosystem and smelt since the 1970s, precipitation levels can drastically transform the delta ecosystem’s complex food web. For instance, the invasive Asian clam—introduced to the delta in the 1980s—increases during droughts and competes with the smelt for food.

Dry conditions, Mr. Moyle adds, also make the water clearer and render the translucent smelt more vulnerable to predators. Toxic fertilizers from delta farmers and contaminants from Sacramento urban users grow more concentrated when there is less water.

“The chances of recovery are low,” Mr. Moyle tells me, noting that last month’s survey captured smelt scattered in disparate areas of the delta (state data show that the government-survey trawls kill more adult smelt than the pumps do). So the tiny fish may have to swim great distances to find a mate. Another problem is that the few remaining females and males may be at different stages of development and unable to mate.

Mr. Moyle predicts that the smelt will disappear from the delta within the next two years—but strictly speaking, they won’t be extinct: The Fish and Wildlife Service maintains a “refuge” population at a fish hatchery near Shasta Dam that can recolonize the delta when water is abundant again. Environmentalists claim that the fish have a right to return. UC Davis also raises hundreds of smelt for experiments and conservation at a lab south of Stockton. Long live the smelt.

Even if the delta smelt were eliminated from the delta forever, the federal government would continue to restrict pumping to protect other fish: the longfin smelt, steelhead and Chinook winter-run salmon. And green groups would continue petitioning the government to expand its list of endangered species. Parched Californians may soon wonder when it’s their turn for such concern.

Ms. Finley is an editorial writer for the Journal.