Initial Thoughts on Ukraine

There is a pretty fundamental truth when it comes to war that was best articulated by the great strategist Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz.  He said that "in war everything is simple, but even the most simple thing is complex". This leads to the famous "fog of war" that so many have articulated.  We are seeing that today in Ukraine.  In a country the size of Texas with 45 million people, an invasion with the intent to conquer is not simple.  That's fundamentally why the Russians surrounded the country with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and massive military machine to overwhelm the Ukrainian military and it's people.  As of today, the reports are that the going is not so smooth for the Russians.  But that's today.  This will be a long game...as everything in Europe is.  

As the images and stories come in from the front lines, the feelings are overwhelming.  Here are a few of mine.

• The Ukrainians will not go gently.  They are a proud people with a strong sense of nationalism and pride of country.  One of the things that is true about Europe is that over the centuries borders and countries have shifted and changed.  But today is today.  However they evolved, whatever ethnicity they claim,  whoever they have been, today they are Ukrainians.  They will be and are fighting.  Fiercely.  And I don't know this for certain, but I'm pretty certain that when the ultimate overwhelming force of Russian soldiers take over, there will be a guerrilla war that will continue to give the conquerors fits.  Think Vietnam.  Think Afghanistan.  Hell, think of the U.S. 1770's.
• Putin's true colors have come out.  His justification for war, his crazy rantings about the "Nazis and drug addicts" populating Ukraine have shown him to the tyrant and thug he is.  His claim about the true position of Ukraine and its link to Russia is hogwash.  This is meant for the folks back home and from all accounts it's not playing well.  Some say Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union.  I don't think so. I think he's trying to recreate (or create anew) the Russian empire.  Will he stop at Ukraine.  No one knows but the spill over and continuation could get ugly.
• The war correspondents reporting from Ukraine are doing a good job.  By any measure, they are in a precarious position and could lose their lives for this story.  All of the media companies have reporters on the ground.  I've been watching many of them and for my money the BBC is doing the best job.  Maybe not surprising.
• President Zelensky is proving to be a monumentally great leader.  He is staying.  His family is staying.  He is communicating and clearly leading the country.  One thinks of Churchill.  I don't know if he'll survive, but if he does he will be revered and held up as an example of great leadership in extremis.  An easy comparison to make is how Zelensky is behaving versus the President of Afghanistan and his cowardly fleeing during our humiliating retreat.  There is no comparison.
• The stories of heroism are mind boggling.  The population have been given weapons and asked to fight.  And many are.  Grocers, postmen, teachers, and so many other regular people fighting the Russian Army.  The Russian Army that is by any measure one of the most capable in the world.  I saw a video of a man saying goodbye to his wife and small daughter as he put them on a bus for the border with a great certainty that he wouldn't see them again.  Mind boggling.  We are hearing more and more stories every day of heroes doing what they have to do in defense of their country.  The soldier who blew himself up when he took down a bridge to slow down the Russians.  The 13 borders guards on a small island in the Black Sea who told a Russian frigate to "go fuck themselves" when they received a demand to surrender.  They were subsequently all killed by a missile from that ship.  These stories are not stories of futility.  They are stories of heroism.  They are stories of a people who realize that there are some things worth dying over.
• With hindsight being 20-20, it's clear that the west should have been assisting Ukraine since the first invasion in the Crimea in 2014.  We should have been arming, training, and supporting them very aggressively.   From my perspective they should have been granted entry to NATO.  Arguably, if that would have happened it would have been much more difficulty for Putin to make his move.  I'm hearing just now that NATO is calling up it's emergency response force.  If that is true, the risk of escalation is going up.  Think Hitler and his annexation of Chechoslovakia, Austria, Poland, etc during his rein of terror.  But whatever the next days and weeks bring, we must do everything possible to support Ukraine.
• I have had a skepticism regarding sanctions since my days as a student at National War College when I studied them.  Simply put, they impact the people of the country, but will have little impact on tyrants and dictators.  Sanctions are an expected action and they play well in the media, but they are generally ineffective on the actions taking place on the ground.  Additionally, sanctions can be tough of not so tough.  If you peel the onion on the current sanctions, you'd find that there are other things we could be doing, but aren't.  Good question is why not?  But what Ukraine needs right now are weapons, intelligence and resources to protect their country.  That's it.  The U.S. and the west in general should be pulling out all the stops to get them what they need.
• This whole situation reminds me of what the general outcome is of appeasing dictators who always have designs on expanding their empire.  In 2020 China took Hong Kong.  In 2021 the Taliban retook Afghanistan.  In 2022 the Russians are making a move on Ukraine.  It doesn't take much imagination to perceive that in 2023 the Chinese may finally make their move on Taiwan.  During all of these debacles, the west and the U.S. have done very little.  It makes me think of the 1930's.  All the world dithered and appeased Hitler and we saw the result.  Only one voice rose to oppose this folly.  Thanks God for Churchill or who knows where we'd be.
• It is axiomatic that the world is getting smaller.  That technology is shrinking everything and it is not only getting smaller, it's getting faster.  And the links and webs in all economies are overlapping and complicated.  That brings me to the realization that we are never disconnected.  We buy a lot of oil from Russia.  Russia is a huge exporter of a lot of fundamental commodities like wheat and manure to name a few.  Today, we should be evaluating all of those issues and how we overcome the dependencies.  One of the things we could be doing pretty easily is at least temporarily increase our oil production.  But I get that Biden is beholden to some folks who don't want that to happen.  I just wonder what it will take to rethink energy policy, at least temporarily.

There are more but that's enough.  Things are unfolding so quickly that it's difficult to capture all the thoughts.  I do have one glimmer of good news.  There is reporting that both sides are exploring negotiations.  The Russians have gone so far to request the Israelis to act as intermediary.  At least that is the reporting.  Perhaps the difficulties he's encountered have caused Putin to rethink.  Perhaps the casualties of ordinary people has caused Zelensky to reconsider a statement of neutrality.  Whatever the case, whatever they can do to draw this to an end would be good.

It was another famous strategist, Sun Tsu who said, "He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight".  Let's hope the forces aligned against each other discover that it's time not to fight.