Iowa

Presidential elections in the U.S. have become a bit ridiculous.  Those who want to be President start too early, spend too much money, eat all kinds of stuff like rubber chicken and anemic ribs, cow tow to every special interest group out there (when they know they are issuing hollow promises), become exhausted, and focus on a very narrow part of the country.  Namely Iowa and New Hampshire.  They are the first two states who hold primaries.  Or rather, New Hampshire does.  

Iowa, as most know, holds something they call the caucuses.  The simple explanation is that a caucus is a meeting at which local members of a political party register their preference among candidates running for office or select delegates to attend a convention.  I've not been but I've been told that they gather and physically group together to support one candidate or another.  Then they take a physical vote but raising hands, or marking paper, or something like that.  If your candidate doesn't get a minimum number of votes that is pre-determined, then you need to switch to your second choice.  After a lot of shuffling and deal-making, they wind up with a final tally for your precinct.  And then the results get called in to a central counting center.  I don't know if any other state does it this way, but it's a bit of a goofy process.  

So yesterday they had the Iowa caucuses and it was a colossal fiasco of epic proportions.  It was monumental!  Like...unprecedented.  Late in the day they announced that no results would be forthcoming because of "irregularities".  Apparently there were issues with counting, there were issues with a new app they were using to communicate the vote, and there were issues with calling in the votes.  Just to be clear...THEY HAD TWO YEARS TO GET THIS RIGHT!!  Unbelievable.

Now... a few thoughts.  I think the day of the caucus has clearly come and gone.  Iowa ought to think long and hard regarding continuing this tradition.  There are clearly better ways to do it.  I've heard today that this new "app" was procured from a company called Shadow, Inc.  They are owned by a company called ACRONYM.  According to Shadow's website they see themselves "as building a long-term, side-by-side “Shadow” of tech infrastructure to the Democratic Party and the progressive community at large.".  ACRONYM says that they "build power and modern infrastructure for a new progressive movement".  Nothing wrong with either of them.  If they see a market for their services, then good for them.  But...the reporting today says they are almost entirely populated by Hillary operatives and the Shadow has a relationship with Mayor Pete.  May be innocent.  But given Hillary's dishonesty, I'd put nothing past her.  The excuse that the phone lines were too busy to call in votes is way beyond believable.  THEY HAD TWO YEARS TO GET THIS STRAIGHT!!  So it is a fiasco of major proportions.  

Another predictable result from the Iowa fiasco was the media's response.  Or should I say non-response.  No criticism, no big deal, yawn...move along...nothing to see here.  Their hatred of Trump comes through in everything they do and so their only move was to make excuses, say it doesn't matter, explain the unexplainable, and continue to treat us like we're idiots.  Predictable.  

The thing about Iowa is, it's the first event in a long, long Presidential election campaign.  Who wins isn't as important as the momentum that it provides.  Don't get me wrong, winning is important.  But there have been plenty of Presidents in the modern era who haven't won Iowa.  But there are two important parts of competing in Iowa.  The first is to be able to claim a real or moral victory and move on to New Hampshire with momentum.  The second is to demonstrate to donors that they should invest in a candidate.  The fiasco in Iowa prevented both of these important things.  Most of the candidates simply left and claimed some sort of victory.  But they are pissed.  Really pissed.  And the Dems have to be mortified and embarrassed.  

This afternoon the Democratic party of Iowa came out, apologized and provided partial results.  It's the day after and they still don't have results!  As of this writing Mayor Pete is in first, Bernie is in second, Lizzie is in third, Biden is in fourth, and Amy is in fifth.  So the winners here are Pete, Amy, and Bernie.  The loser is Lizzie.  And for Biden it's a total and complete disaster.  If this order holds up he's in deep, deep trouble.  The public and donors will desert him.  As for the rest, I still believe that Bloomberg will be the nominee and Amy will run as his VP.  Pete isn't electable in a national election.  Lizzie is a dead duck...she just doesn't know it yet because she's so full of herself.  I'm not sure there has ever been a more unlikable candidate for President.  Check that...I forgot about Hillary.  Okay, she's the second most unlikeable.  As for Bernie, the DNC and many, many Dems will go to the mat to prevent him from getting the nomination.  If you haven't been following, you can see what I think of Bernie here.So no matter how many Bernie Bros there are who will vent their nasty comments against other Dems, he's not gonna get it.  And if I'm right, most of those naive Bernie Bros will stay home on election day, further exacerbating Trump's win.  At least that's my take.  I may be wrong.  Things may change.  Events on the ground may jumble everything up.  But as of today, that's how I see it.