China

China has been in the news more and more recently.  But I'm not sure the average U.S. citizen remotely understands the threats and opportunities to us.  We visited China a few years ago and over the course of about 18 days we saw a vibrant economy, abject poverty, mystery, repression, amazing culture and friendly people.  It was an eye-opener in so many ways.  I'd always wanted to go and never could because of the clearances I held so this tourist trip was a life-long desire.  I'm glad we went and we learned a lot.  But over the course of the last couple of years my travel experience has really stimulated me to think about what China is and is not.

Recently (as in Trump recently) our country has started to hold them accountable for their unfair trade practices and downright cheating on intellectual property.  It's been going on a long time and it would be fair to say that they have gotten mega rich on the backs of the West, specifically the U.S.  The balance of trade is unfair and the barriers to trade are onerous.  So I am generally happy that Trump is exhibiting some backbone and some smarts in this area that so many of our leaders avoided. I know it's painful.  I know it might impact us negatively in the short term.  I know there is enormous pressure to just maintain the status quo.  But I think we have to work toward a fairer trade environment with China and the current strategy seems to me to be the best on put forward.  I'm also heartened that Trump seems to have hired some very smart folks to engage in trade negotiations with China.  In the past trade talks seemed to be more politically motivated than economically motivated.  So I'm cautiously optimistic.

What I'm must less optimistic about is our national security relationship with China.  Simply stated, they are a huge threat and getting bigger.  Like many, I think at some point we will be forced to confront them, and it is likely not to be pretty.  China seems to be emerging from a dark period of several decades and their economic vitality is leading many in leadership positions to seek to restore what they believe is their rightful place as leaders of the world.  They see themselves as one of the world's oldest civilizations and yearn to assert themselves.  If you look at any analysis of their Army, Navy and Air Force capability, even in open sources, it is pretty eye watering.  They are building a formidable force and a capability that will challenge us to our limits.

Coincidentally, there have been a couple of blog posts on one of my favorite bloggers, CDR Salamander regarding China in recent days.  One starts as a discussion regarding what to do with USS Truman...scrap her or refuel her.  The second is a discussion of China missile capability.  Both are a bit of inside baseball and I realize you won't go read these posts unless you're interested.  But if you're a bit of a national security geek like me, the discussion is sobering.  There are some great pull quotes and analysis from some serious people who, in my view, are spot on regarding the threat.  So if you've got some time and are interested, go to the links and read what I think are very readable, understandable, and most importantly scary analysis.  There is a reckoning coming.  We are not ready today.  I'm worried we're doing not much to be ready tomorrow as our leaders can't seem to concentrate on anything but the latest political hit job.  When the balloon goes up, we could find ourselves losing significant numbers of assets and people.  Who will we blame?

The original article on Truman is here.

The counterpoint is here.

The Chinese missile threat article is here.