Sanctions

In my last post about sanctions I mentioned sanctions and my belief that they didn't do anything to impact the leadership in their intent to prosecute a conflict.  However, the fast moving actions of the last few days and the unprecedented coalescing of western nations to inflict harm on Russia, and especially Putin for its invasion of Ukraine is unlike most other actions that we've seen in recent history.  

One of the things we are seeing is more and more concern regarding cybersecurity and the impact of financial sanctions that are being imposed on Russia.  Just like people, desperate countries do desperate things.  And when the pace of change is as rapid as we've seen in this instance, calamities can occur in the blink of an eye.  Who would have imagined that we'd be where we are two weeks ago?  

One of the reliable sources I check for info on both Naval and national security issues is CDR Salamander's blog.  He's not always right (who is) but he always has thought provoking posts.  If you're interested, and you should be, check out his post today here.  

These are dangerous times.  I'm not talking 9/11.  An event that caused specific action to go after a rogue terrorist.  I'm talking Pearl Harbor.  The actions of a nation-state that sparked a World War.  Pray for cooler heads to prevail.  

Initial Thoughts on Ukraine

There is a pretty fundamental truth when it comes to war that was best articulated by the great strategist Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz.  He said that "in war everything is simple, but even the most simple thing is complex". This leads to the famous "fog of war" that so many have articulated.  We are seeing that today in Ukraine.  In a country the size of Texas with 45 million people, an invasion with the intent to conquer is not simple.  That's fundamentally why the Russians surrounded the country with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and massive military machine to overwhelm the Ukrainian military and it's people.  As of today, the reports are that the going is not so smooth for the Russians.  But that's today.  This will be a long game...as everything in Europe is.  

As the images and stories come in from the front lines, the feelings are overwhelming.  Here are a few of mine.

• The Ukrainians will not go gently.  They are a proud people with a strong sense of nationalism and pride of country.  One of the things that is true about Europe is that over the centuries borders and countries have shifted and changed.  But today is today.  However they evolved, whatever ethnicity they claim,  whoever they have been, today they are Ukrainians.  They will be and are fighting.  Fiercely.  And I don't know this for certain, but I'm pretty certain that when the ultimate overwhelming force of Russian soldiers take over, there will be a guerrilla war that will continue to give the conquerors fits.  Think Vietnam.  Think Afghanistan.  Hell, think of the U.S. 1770's.
• Putin's true colors have come out.  His justification for war, his crazy rantings about the "Nazis and drug addicts" populating Ukraine have shown him to the tyrant and thug he is.  His claim about the true position of Ukraine and its link to Russia is hogwash.  This is meant for the folks back home and from all accounts it's not playing well.  Some say Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union.  I don't think so. I think he's trying to recreate (or create anew) the Russian empire.  Will he stop at Ukraine.  No one knows but the spill over and continuation could get ugly.
• The war correspondents reporting from Ukraine are doing a good job.  By any measure, they are in a precarious position and could lose their lives for this story.  All of the media companies have reporters on the ground.  I've been watching many of them and for my money the BBC is doing the best job.  Maybe not surprising.
• President Zelensky is proving to be a monumentally great leader.  He is staying.  His family is staying.  He is communicating and clearly leading the country.  One thinks of Churchill.  I don't know if he'll survive, but if he does he will be revered and held up as an example of great leadership in extremis.  An easy comparison to make is how Zelensky is behaving versus the President of Afghanistan and his cowardly fleeing during our humiliating retreat.  There is no comparison.
• The stories of heroism are mind boggling.  The population have been given weapons and asked to fight.  And many are.  Grocers, postmen, teachers, and so many other regular people fighting the Russian Army.  The Russian Army that is by any measure one of the most capable in the world.  I saw a video of a man saying goodbye to his wife and small daughter as he put them on a bus for the border with a great certainty that he wouldn't see them again.  Mind boggling.  We are hearing more and more stories every day of heroes doing what they have to do in defense of their country.  The soldier who blew himself up when he took down a bridge to slow down the Russians.  The 13 borders guards on a small island in the Black Sea who told a Russian frigate to "go fuck themselves" when they received a demand to surrender.  They were subsequently all killed by a missile from that ship.  These stories are not stories of futility.  They are stories of heroism.  They are stories of a people who realize that there are some things worth dying over.
• With hindsight being 20-20, it's clear that the west should have been assisting Ukraine since the first invasion in the Crimea in 2014.  We should have been arming, training, and supporting them very aggressively.   From my perspective they should have been granted entry to NATO.  Arguably, if that would have happened it would have been much more difficulty for Putin to make his move.  I'm hearing just now that NATO is calling up it's emergency response force.  If that is true, the risk of escalation is going up.  Think Hitler and his annexation of Chechoslovakia, Austria, Poland, etc during his rein of terror.  But whatever the next days and weeks bring, we must do everything possible to support Ukraine.
• I have had a skepticism regarding sanctions since my days as a student at National War College when I studied them.  Simply put, they impact the people of the country, but will have little impact on tyrants and dictators.  Sanctions are an expected action and they play well in the media, but they are generally ineffective on the actions taking place on the ground.  Additionally, sanctions can be tough of not so tough.  If you peel the onion on the current sanctions, you'd find that there are other things we could be doing, but aren't.  Good question is why not?  But what Ukraine needs right now are weapons, intelligence and resources to protect their country.  That's it.  The U.S. and the west in general should be pulling out all the stops to get them what they need.
• This whole situation reminds me of what the general outcome is of appeasing dictators who always have designs on expanding their empire.  In 2020 China took Hong Kong.  In 2021 the Taliban retook Afghanistan.  In 2022 the Russians are making a move on Ukraine.  It doesn't take much imagination to perceive that in 2023 the Chinese may finally make their move on Taiwan.  During all of these debacles, the west and the U.S. have done very little.  It makes me think of the 1930's.  All the world dithered and appeased Hitler and we saw the result.  Only one voice rose to oppose this folly.  Thanks God for Churchill or who knows where we'd be.
• It is axiomatic that the world is getting smaller.  That technology is shrinking everything and it is not only getting smaller, it's getting faster.  And the links and webs in all economies are overlapping and complicated.  That brings me to the realization that we are never disconnected.  We buy a lot of oil from Russia.  Russia is a huge exporter of a lot of fundamental commodities like wheat and manure to name a few.  Today, we should be evaluating all of those issues and how we overcome the dependencies.  One of the things we could be doing pretty easily is at least temporarily increase our oil production.  But I get that Biden is beholden to some folks who don't want that to happen.  I just wonder what it will take to rethink energy policy, at least temporarily.

There are more but that's enough.  Things are unfolding so quickly that it's difficult to capture all the thoughts.  I do have one glimmer of good news.  There is reporting that both sides are exploring negotiations.  The Russians have gone so far to request the Israelis to act as intermediary.  At least that is the reporting.  Perhaps the difficulties he's encountered have caused Putin to rethink.  Perhaps the casualties of ordinary people has caused Zelensky to reconsider a statement of neutrality.  Whatever the case, whatever they can do to draw this to an end would be good.

It was another famous strategist, Sun Tsu who said, "He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight".  Let's hope the forces aligned against each other discover that it's time not to fight.

The Olympics in China

 

So the Olympics are here again.  I'm usually wildly enthusiastic about watching the games.  And that's both Winter and Summer.  I am glued to the TV for all the events.  Last night I watched women's hockey between Finland and Canada.  I mean, when would I ever do that except the Olympics?  

The pageantry is stupendous, the performances run from routine to world record breaking, the athletes are for the most part hugely admirable, and the venues are impressive.  To watch these mostly kids achieving a life long goal is heartwarming.  My view is that just being there and competing is probably the experience of a lifetime for most of them.  Of course, there a few that go to multiple Olympics and maybe it becomes somewhat routine, but I think for most of them they are wide-eyed and just want to take it all in.  For me it's not about the medals and I sort of disdain the medal count, but I have to admit to getting somewhat misty eyed when an American ascends the medal stand and the Star Spangled Banner is played.  In other words, when it comes to the Olympics, I'm all in.  All the time.

Having said that, I'm conflicted about these games.  China is definitely an oppressive police state that is on the move.  There is no doubt that they are our major competitors in the world and a confrontation is coming.  I'm not going to predict how it will unfold, but it's coming.   If you think that China is going to let Taiwan exist indefinitely, you're living in a dream world.  And that's not even to address the disputed island in the South China Sea for starters.  They are preparing for a major confrontation.  It doesn't take too much research to verify that.  Taiwan is doing some things to prepare, but not enough.  Not nearly enough.  And we are not moving aggressively to support our allies and prepare for what is coming.  I won't get into the idiocy of our national security priorities here, but it's going to be ugly and the outcome is by no means certain.  Typically the media has been all over the place depending on their politics.  I don't think they really care about national security but human rights abuses get their attention.  That is a story that they can get their teeth into.  Some have been very critical and some have covered it lightly and some have ignored it.  But the reality is that Chinas record of human rights abuses, their underhanded business practices and their overt goal to expand their Communist propaganda around the world is pretty atrocious.  If you doubt that latter statement Google the "belt and road initiative".   

In full disclosure, wife and I visited China as tourists several years ago.  I had never been able to visit during my working life because of my security clearances, but I'd always wanted to see the "Middle Kingdom".  It was a fascinating trip that allowed for a glimpse of a culture and civilization so unknown to most Westerners.  And while it was educational and enlightening trip, we definitely saw the oppressive police state.  No matter how much they tried to gloss it over or deny it, it was always there.  And it was scary.  Suffice to say that I have no desire to return.

Having the Olympics there reminds me of the 1936 games in Berlin.  Looking back, that gave Hitler a huge propaganda platform, no matter the exploits of Jesse Owens.  I bet anyone who had a hand in the decision to go to Berlin regrets that decision.  At least I hope they do.  How about China?  Here's how Jim Geraghty over at National Review puts it:

Everyone with a role in these Olympic Games wants to avert their eyes, pretend everything is normal, and act like China is just another host country. Beijing thinks it is about to enjoy the benefits of a two-week propaganda festival broadcast to television screens and web browsers all around the world. And you’re unlikely to see or hear too much lambasting of the crimes and scandals of the Chinese regime in a lot of other mainstream news institutions. ABC is owned by Disney, NBC is owned by Comcast, CBS is part of Viacom, the Washington Post is owned by Amazon, Bloomberg is owned by . . . Bloomberg. All of these giant companies want continued access to the Chinese market, and the overwhelming majority of the leaders of these giant companies want to avoid antagonizing the Chinese government.

 James Quinn in the same magazine details the abuses:

• Starting in 2020, Beijing has all but eliminated Hong Kong’s autonomy and democracy with its imposition of a new national-security law. Effectively, the party criminalized any speech it deems to be dangerous — and claimed the ability to prosecute offenders anywhere in the world.
• Key pro-democracy figures were imprisoned or forced into exile, and the city’s authorities shuttered independent sources of news, most prominently Apple Daily.
• Campaigns against Christians, Falun Gong adherents, and other religious minorities in China continued apace, and in 2020, the party initiated a new effort in Inner Mongolia to assimilate ethnic Mongolians into Han nationalist identity, prohibiting schools there from using the Mongolian language.
• But the proximate cause of Western outrage over the Games is the genocide of Uyghurs.  A wealth of evidence amassed by researchers, journalists, and victims has over the past five years revealed that the Chinese government, in a campaign ordered by Xi, is working to eliminate that ethnic minority group.

The selection of a host country for the Olympics is a big deal.  A country that wants to be considered usually has to spend millions of dollars in the campaign and billions in constructing the venues.  It's about prestige, sports, tourism and above all else money.  If I'm guessing, I bet the Chinese bought the selection.  The International Olympic Committee isn't known as the most ethical body in the world and I could see a lot of nods and winks and ignoring some of the seedier sides of the culture in the selection.  I'm also would not be surprised if a fair amount of threat and bribery went into it.  But what do I know?  What's done is done.  All I'll say is that there are a lot of countries around the world that want to and could host the Olympics.  Picking one of the world's biggest oppressive, Communist police states probably isn't a good idea.  Here's hoping they won't repeat it.

I watched the opening ceremonies last night and two things struck me.  First is that NBC had a surprising amount of critical commentary about China.  Their analysis, while not harsh, did bring out many of the issues.  Second, they miked up the USA flag-bearer as he walked in.  He is on the Curling team who competed and won the gold medal last time.  And he was over the top amazed to be there.  To be a part of the Olympic Games was clearly a lifetime highlight and the fact that it was in an oppressive police state was secondary.  

So I see these opportunities for the athletes and its difficult, at least for me, to not come down on the side of rooting for the athletes.  It's a bit like the Super Bowl post I put up a few days ago.  I'm disgusted by the hypocrisy of the NFL and the half time performers, but I will watch the game.  I'm not going to let those assholes deprive me of watching a potentially great football game.  And I'm going to watch the Olympics in China.  It's not some statement of support of the oppressive police state.  It's not a sellout to the corporate world.  It's not that I don't think a reckoning is coming.  I'm just not willing to let those assholes deprive me of watching the Olympics.  Simple as that. 

We All Need Inspiration

Facebook reminded me today of a post I made two years ago.  I posted the closing words of the State of the Union address, which are copied below.  

"As the world bears witness tonight, America is a land of heroes. This is the place where greatness is born, where destinies are forged, and where legends come to life. This is the home of Thomas Edison and Teddy Roosevelt, of many great Generals, including Washington, Pershing, Patton, and MacArthur. This is the home of Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglass, Amelia Earhart, Harriet Tubman, the Wright Brothers, Neil Armstrong, and so many more. This is the country where children learn names like Wyatt Earp, Davy Crockett, and Annie Oakley. This is the place where the pilgrims landed at Plymouth and where Texas patriots made their last stand at the Alamo.

The American Nation was carved out of the vast frontier by the toughest, strongest, fiercest, and most determined men and women ever to walk the face of the Earth. Our ancestors braved the unknown; tamed the wilderness; settled the Wild West; lifted millions from poverty, disease, and hunger; vanquished tyranny and fascism; ushered the world to new heights of science and medicine; laid down the railroads, dug out canals, raised up the skyscrapers — and, ladies and gentlemen, our ancestors built the most exceptional Republic ever to exist in all of human history. And we are making it greater than ever before!

This is our glorious and magnificent inheritance.

We are Americans. We are the pioneers. We are the pathfinders. We settled the new world, we built the modern world, and we changed history forever by embracing the eternal truth that everyone is made equal by the hand of Almighty God.

America is the place where anything can happen! America is the place where anyone can rise. And here, on this land, on this soil, on this continent, the most incredible dreams come true!

This Nation is our canvas, and this country is our masterpiece. We look at tomorrow and see unlimited frontiers just waiting to be explored. Our brightest discoveries are not yet known. Our most thrilling stories are not yet told. Our grandest journeys are not yet made. The American Age, the American Epic, the American Adventure, has only just begun!

Our spirit is still young; the sun is still rising; God’s grace is still shining; and my fellow Americans, the best is yet to come!

Thank you. God Bless You. God Bless America."

I have no illusions that Trump wrote these words but whoever did was really on his or her game.  I remember being uplifted.  I remember thinking that maybe we really could get beyond our divisions.  I hoped that his words would be matched by his actions.  But alas, it was not to be.  We all know what happened at the election and the shameful and sordid actions of his followers on Jan 6.  I've said in this blog many times that I would have voted guilty at his impeachment trial.  It seemed pretty clear to me.  

Now we are a year later and things seem worse.  My view is that the current crowd in power are a disaster.  They are a disaster in every facet of governing.  The other side doesn't see it that way, but that just shows how deep our divisions are.  I couldn't ever conceive of supporting Trump after his actions after the election because I thought he was genuinely deranged.  And I fervently hope that a more mainline Republican can overcome the Trump phenomenon that continues.  But as time goes on I'm not so sure.  

So I find myself in a quandary.  Would I ever support him again?  Against the current crowd I would have no choice.  I hope that as the next few years unfold, someone on the right will emerge who can stand up to the dangerous looney right and seize the party to run a solid campaign that will appeal to the vast majority of moderates like me in the middle.  And also that someone on the left will emerge who can stand up to the dangerous radical left and seize the party to run a solid campaign that will have wider appeal.  But I'm not optimistic.  

The thing fighting against that is the inviolate truth that money rules politics.  I saw a fascinating article on Axios this morning on the making of the modern Republican.  You can read it here.  This is the tale of money in the Republican world but it's the same on the other side.  It's discouraging and disappointing but not surprising.  The average voter can't do a thing about it and is increasingly just along for the ride.  

I'm an optimist in most things but increasingly I'm pessimistic about the state of our national political life and the worsening discourse amongst our citizens.  To be an optimist, you have to see a potential positive way ahead.  But I don't know what that is.  

Enough is Enough

One of the things I try diligently to do is not be the old, cranky, out of touch with culture guy.  I try to stay up with technology, Sometimes I'm successful, sometimes not.  I keep attuned to the creative side of our culture and keep up with the popular trends.  I confess that I don't particularly like or understand some of the current music, movies and other parts of the creative world, but I know my parents weren't wild about the Beatles, Rolling Stones or other aspect of the popular culture in my day.  A good example of something I don't really understand the draw of are podcasts.  Even in retirement I don't have time to sit around and listen to other people talking, bloviating and pontificating.  I get enough of that in real life.  But podcasts are enormously popular so I try and keep up with what is going on in that world.  

A friend sent me the story below.  It's got some rough language, but that just seems to be the language of the day.  Fuck has become a word that is used so casually and frequently by both sexes that it's lost a lot of its impact.  At least to me that's true.  

Anyway, it got me to thinking about what we accept and what we don't.  Or what is okay and what isn't.  Once again, not to be the old pessimistic guy, but some of the fabric of culture seems to be unravelling.  And when we celebrate and reward those greatly contributing to that unravelling...well...enough is enough.  I'm just one guy.  There's nothing I can do.  Or wait...I have a blog.  At least, at the very least, I can raise a bullshit flag as high as I can.  This is unacceptable.  And I'm not looking for any comments like "what about................?"  I'm talking about this.  Rewarding and celebrating these nasty characters isn't okay.  I have no expectations that my (or others) disdain will have any impact at all.  I'm not calling for anything like a boycott or letter writing campaign.  Because those kinds of things are useless.  But at least I won't be silent.  And if enough people who don't think this is okay voice their disgust, besides feeling a little better and standing up a little straighter, maybe someone will listen.  

And I will finish by saying this.  This is the kind of shit that got Trump elected.  No one else was listening.  No one else could see anything wrong.  No one else would voice the truth.  Money is at the root of all politics and they couldn't afford for the checks to stop.  If you've read this blog at all you know I'm not a fan.  But if our culture keeps spiraling down he's gonna get another chance.  I hope desperately he doesn't, but I'm afraid he will.  And to use a word that I only use to emphasize something, that will be a fucking disaster!

During CBS’s telecast of the Titans-Bengals playoff game, a commercial for Corona beer aired, starring Snoop Dogg, who, despite countless arrests for guns and drugs, has become a must-have to endorse products.

So what if he luridly degrades women as one of his stocks in trade if he can sell beer?

The night before that ad ran, NYPD officer Jason Rivera, 22, was shot dead with an assault rifle while responding to a domestic violence call in East Harlem. His partner, Wilbert Mora, 27, died from his wounds four days later.

And as I watched that Corona ad, I got to thinking about Snoop Dogg’s violently anti-police, pro-crime vile and vulgar “artistry,” mindful that Roger Goodell has anointed Snoop Dogg the headliner at this year’s Super Bowl halftime.

Perhaps Goodell, also in the interest of keeping it real, would like to rap along with a “song” by Snoop and J5 Slap entitled, “Police.” Ready, Roger? It reads thusly:

“All you niggas out there,

Take your guns that you using to shoot each other

And start shooting these b—h-ass mother fucking police.

That’ll impress a mother-fucking nigga like me.”

But Snoop’s Super Bowl selection doesn’t just meet with the approval of the NFL and “It’s All About Our Fans” Goodell.

The halftime show and Snoop’s appearance is sponsored with the full, proud commercial and financial support of Pepsi, which seems eager to become the soft drink of hardcore.

Back to that charming “song”. Ready Team Pepsi? It’s Karaoke Night! Here we go:

“Dipping through the city with a Glock in a Range Rove

If you sleeping probably not with the same hoe

Rock the same clothes rich niggas do

And rock by the same code till I’m a rich nigga too

I be in the club with the stick in my shoe

You call the fucking police like a bitch nigga do.”

Five NYPD officers have been shot in the first 20 days of this year. And the fellow chosen by the NFL and approved by Goodell to star in this year’s halftime produces, records, sells and profits from “artistry” advocating streets filled with the blood of cops and threats against those who would help solve the shootings of cops and civilians.

More? We’ll give this part to NBC’s NFL pregame panelist, Jac Collinsworth. Sunday, after NBC presented a Super Bowl halftime promo narrated by Snoop Dogg, he said, “That was our friend, Snoop.”

Is that right? He’s our friend?

Come on up to the mic, Jac. Now, in the name of keepin’ it real, pick it up with this, the refrain from “our friend’s” charming ditty (with Master P), “Snitches”:

“Snitches snitches snitches

Niggas be running they mouth just like bitches …

Snitches snitches snitches

I got a slug for ya’ll mother-fucking snitches.”

Hey, Corona beer marketing department, your turn. Ready? Snoop Dogg has a video in which he sings a cover version of NWA’s “Fuck the police” while holding his crotch in a courtroom. It’s an easy one. Just repeat after Snoop:

“Fuck the po-lice! Fuck the po-lice!”

I invite — dare, challenge — everyone — Goodell, the NFLPA, NFL team owners, the executive board at Pepsi and Corona, NBC Sports, young Collinsworth — to demonstrate the courage of their convictions to join with Snoop Dogg in any of his dozens of similarly depraved enterprises presented as entertainment.

And now, just for added kicks, look up the lurid lyrics of two other Goodell-certified entertainers who will perform at this Super Bowl halftime, Eminem (“Just Don’t Give A Fuck”) and crotch-grabbing Kendrick (“Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe”) Lamar.

This is what Roger Goodell thinks NFL audiences, of all ages, are worth on a Super Bowl Sunday. These acts are far beneath him as he has already admitted that he can’t repeat what Snoop Dogg raps. But he feels as if Snoop Dogg is perfect for you and yours — and professional football.

And it’s not as if previous Super Bowl halftime shows under Goodell’s classy, dignified guidance haven’t caused those who know right from wrong to ask why they’ve been dismissed as unworthy, disinvited as out of step with marching that points all of us backwards.

Why, under Goodell, have halftime shows been diving lower and lower? And why has he allowed such uncivil performers to be attached to a championship ball game?

Meanwhile, the classic “To Kill a Mockingbird,” has been removed from a Washington State school’s required reading list because it contains racial slurs.

And Goodell, the shameless $63 million per pandering phony, slaps “Stop Hate” and “End Racism” along the backs of end zones and players’ helmets, then invites Snoop Dogg to be the star of the Super Bowl.

Maybe Snoop will be granted a police escort to the stadium. For his safety, of course.

 

Officer Rivera was 22. Officer Mora was 27.