Another Horrific Shooting

After the horrific mass shooting yesterday, on July 4th, I feel a bit compelled to at least comment.  I am further motivated to do this by the really excellent essay I read today from David French.  You may or may not know of his writing, but frequently find myself nodding my head in agreement with his thoughts. 

His essay today is titled, "Finding the Lost Boys in American Life" and you can read it on his Substack site here.  As you can probably tell by the title, he very much focuses not on weapons, or security systems, or law enforcement response but rather on the young men perpetuating these unbelievable acts.  

He starts out by postulating that this cultural problem that has been festering for a long time really can't be fixed by policy or politics.  It needs to be fixed at the local level by people stepping up to confront unacceptable behavior and work to change it.  At at the same time stop young men believing that it is "their destiny" to snuff out so many lives.  

In quoting a couple of experts in the field (and there are experts in the field of why children arrive at a point where they will pull the trigger) he focuses on two things.  The first is the isolation and loneliness that some kids feel in unloving households and the second is a very interesting phenomenon about these events building on each other.  That it becomes easier to commit such a horrific act as more horrific acts occur.  The two books/essays quoted are well worth reading for further insight.

David arrives at a point of summary by saying this:

"Mass shootings have grown so common that we can now almost write a script. Is the shooter an alienated young man? Yes. Did he meticulously plan the shooting? Yes. Did he purchase the gun legally? Yes. Did he repeatedly broadcast his deadly intent on social media? Yes."

Who wouldn't agree with that synopsis?  It's almost become formulaic.  Whenever I've become involved in a conversation about this issue, I've advocated for stronger Red Flag Laws as one component of the solution.  But as he points out Red Flag Laws require "both knowledge of the law and a basic level of mutual care and concern."  Without those two components, then the laws won't matter.  It doesn't matter if there is a law but you're not willing to step up to question unacceptable behavior.  All of the guys who  have committed these atrocities broadcast their intent.  Was there no one who saw it?  Was there no one who felt compelled to report the troubled behavior?  We hear all the time since 9/11, "if you see something, say something."  Has that gone by the wayside?  

I think one of the most contributing causations is the change to what it means to be a boy or a man in our society.  It's everywhere if you look just a bit.  Some of the statistics about women overtaking men in college degrees and in professional ranks are one indicator.  That's not to denigrate women getting college degrees at all, but rather that the impact is resulting in an unintended consequence.  But it starts earlier than college.  I've been strongly against the Boy Scouts opening their ranks to girls because I believe there needs to be places where boys can be boys and girls can be girls.  There are differences.  And boys need to figure out how to be men from other men in a setting that lends itself to that.  That most schools these days have gotten rid of any vocational arts classes in a subtle way devalues some of the traditional vocations that attracted non-college bound teens.  But David says it better than me:

"...I’d say the “ideology of masculinity” is more dysfunctional than I’ve ever seen. It’s trapped between two competing extremes, a far-left version that casts common male characteristics as inherently toxic or unhealthy and a right-wing masculine counterculture that often revels in aggression and intimidation. One extreme says, “Traditional masculinity is toxic,” and the other extreme responds, “I’ll show you toxic masculinity.” In the meantime, all too many ordinary young men lack any kind of common vision for a moral, meaningful life. "

It's become not a problem of the next town over or the next neighborhood over, it's everywhere.  You may think you live in a traditional, safe area, but we are seeing it happen everywhere.  There are a lot of organizations out there who are trying to help.  One is called "Boys to Men".  Check it out here.  But that's just one of many.  David sums up the task in this way-

"There are too many fatherless children for any of us to content ourselves with mentoring our own families only. Until the lost boys of American life are found by men and women who care enough to intervene before their darkest days, the slow-motion riot will continue..."

We can talk about weapons or background checks or federal laws vs state laws or age limits or training or second amendment repeals or turn-in programs or any other technical issue till we're blue in the face. I support some of these things.  But until we address the tragedy of the young men who commit these acts and as a society resolve to put programs in place to identify and help them, we're spitting in the wind.  And we'll see it again.

Our Birthday

 I haven't written anything in a while.  My last post was May 29 of this year.  It just seems that the events of the world have become a bit overwhelming and anything I might say would do one of three things.  It would piss off one side of an argument, or it would piss off another side of the same argument, or I might struggle to articulate my thoughts in the face of such enormous angst that we see every day in our country.   Or at least we are being told exists.  So most of the time I just watch and concentrate of seeking the good that I know is out there.  

But tomorrow is a bit different.  We have a lot of national holidays.  You know them.  Or maybe you don't.  I'm of an age that the holidays of my childhood have morphed to a whole new set.  But regardless, July 4 is a real constant.  We celebrate our nation's birth on July 4 with flags, fireworks, barbecues, parades, and all sorts of hoopla.  Many places like to tout an "old fashioned Fourth"...whatever that means.  But whatever you do to celebrate or even if you don't celebrate at all, it's worth remembering how this whole experiment in democracy started.  When days like July 4 come along I tend to write about it.  You can read last year's post here. 

This year I think I'll write a little bit about why we celebrate the Fourth.  Imagine a group of people living in what was really a wilderness, or at the very least on the edge of wilderness.  Live was hard! The new world had only been inhabited by Europeans for a couple hundred years and they were still living a pretty tough life.  The British Empire had a reach around the world.  They possessed what was arguably the worlds strongest military and they ruled with an iron fist.  They reaped massive amounts of treasure from their colonies around the world.  A big part of that treasure came from taxes imposed on colonists inside the Empire.  

At some point the people living in America had had enough.  They started rise up.  Remember the cry in Boston harbor?  "No taxation without representation".  There was a group of these people who had the revolutionary idea that they wanted to live in freedom.  I say revolutionary because it was.  It that world the vast amount of people in the world lived under the iron rule of a King, despot, or sovereign.  They had no rights.  Or rather any rights they had were granted by their ruler.  The simple truth was that the vast number of people in the world lived in poverty, made worse by what they paid to the throne.  

But the unique group of people living in America at that time believed that rights shouldn't come from a ruler.  They believed that human rights came from God.  Above all they wanted to throw off the tyranny of a long-distance ruler and live under self government.  So they took action.

The action they took was perilous and life-threatening.  They decided to declare independence and if it took a fight to achieve independence, so be it.  It was hugely risky and getting the leaders of all thirteen colonies to agree was never guaranteed.  Once they had general agreement, the document had to be drafted.  

These days, Thomas Jefferson is decried as a slaveowner and elite landowner.  You can read about the real Thomas Jefferson here.    At least who I believe is the real Thomas Jefferson.  Anyway, it fell to Thomas Jefferson to write the Declaration of Independence.  I don't know what else to say other than I think it's the greatest document of it's kind ever written.  I'll put the whole thing below and you can read it for yourself.

Notice that the date is July 4.  The reality is that the document was drafted over the previous few months and finally voted on by representatives from the colonies on July 4. It wasn't signed until early August, but the document was adopted by 56 representatives on July 4.  

So what is the big deal you ask?  It was just a document.  The leaders of the movement to freedom were the leaders of the country.  At that time leaders were defined as landowners, men, white and people of means.  They weren't black or Indians or women, or other minorities.  In their world, those people didn't occupy positions of leadership.  But they had a lot to lose.  In fact they had everything to lose.  So on July 4 the Second Continental Congress officially adopted a document that confessed high treason against Great Britain.  They were all in.  And that is worth celebrating.

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

What You Can Do

 

I've used this quote many times in my life but I find myself using more and more as our troubles seem to be increasing in our wonderful country.  I see so many people wanting to do something about whatever issue it is that they care deeply about.  Whether it's gun control, abortion, climate change, the economy, Ukraine, and so many others.  The national trauma seems to be running deeper than usual these days.  

When there is a large, national or even international issue that touches peoples emotions, they want to do something.  If they care deeply about something, they want to do something.  But frequently the issue seems so big and so filled with conflicting solutions that it seems overwhelming.  So the natural tendency after a while is to do nothing.  After all, what can one person do?  How can you as an individual have an impact on a large and complex problem?  It's so frustrating.

When I feel like that I remember Teddy Roosevelt's words.  "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are".  Don't worry about a big impact, do something.  Find a local organization that is doing the work you care about on the local level and get involved.  Work for change where you are.  That may lead to something bigger, but if it doesn't you will have the satisfaction of knowing that you've at least worked for something you believe in.  Too many of us are sitting around complaining.  Don't do that.  Find solutions no matter how big or small.  Move the needle, no matter how much.  

Rules

It is axiomatic that as one ages, they become more introspective and more contemplative of their place in the universe.  These rules have served me well.  The problem is I sometimes forget them.  But tomorrow is another day.

1. Live your life

2. Don’t hit send until tomorrow

3. Build relationships

4. When things go south, rely on family

5. Don’t worry about things you can’t do anything about.

6. Every part of your life happens locally.  Focus on that.

7. Travel.  Don’t put it off.  

8. Model behavior

9. Tell the truth

10. Use logic in every decision

11. Confront difficulty

12. Love someone deeply

13. Believe in something greater than yourself

14. Remain curious

15. Nothing is a given.  Remain astonished at the magic of life.

16. The grass isn’t always greener

17. See both sides

18. Extremes never win

19. Voice your opinion…after it has been developed

20. Let it go

 

50 Years of Turmoil

 Like everyone, I was shocked at the leak of the supposed Supreme Court decision on the fate of Roe v Wade.  Most thinking people realize that this is an affront that cannot go unpunished.  In our world of extremes where we can't seem to get along, the court has been the one place that most people see as a bastion of integrity and honesty.  We are a country of laws and the vast majority agree that the Supreme Court has the last word.  It's part of the contract we all have to abide by to ensure we live in a just society. When that balance is upset by something like this leak, it's an affront to us all.  I hope the leaker is found and punished as harshly as possible.

Beyond that, I find it difficult to comment or articulate my thoughts on this subject.  Fundamentally, I've long thought that Roe v Wade was wrongly decided and anticipated that at some point it would be overturned.  But I've dreaded that decision because of the earthquake it will cause.  My other fundamental view is aligned with President Bill Clinton.  He said that abortions should be, "safe, legal and rare".  That makes sense to me.  And as a country we have generally been headed in that direction with abortions declining over the last several years.  But beyond those comments and as a guy, I don't really feel it's my place to get embroiled in a controversy over abortion.  However, I read something today that articulates my thoughts perfectly.  Peggy Noonan writes a weekly column for the WSJ and I usually like her writing. Sometimes I'm not in agreement but most times I resonate with her thinking.  But like I said, in this case we are perfectly aligned.  You can read it here. 

In case the link doesn't work here is the article reprinted. 

Let’s start with true anger and end with honest hope. The alarm many felt at the leaking of an entire draft Supreme Court decision shouldn’t be allowed to dissipate as time passes. Such a thing has never happened. Justice Samuel Alito’s preliminary opinion being taken from the court, without permission or right, and given to the press was an act of sabotage by a vandal. It hardly matters whether the leaker was of the left or right. It reflected the same spirit as the Jan. 6 Capitol riot—irresponsible destructiveness. As the book has been thrown at the rioters, it should be thrown at the leaker.

The justices can’t sit around and say oh no, we’re just another victim of the age. If they have to break some teacups to find who did it, break them. Chief Justice John Roberts worries, rightly, about the court’s standing. This is the biggest threat to it since he joined. At the very least it might be good if the justices would issue a joint statement that they are appalled by the publication of the decision, don’t accept it, won’t countenance it.

Apart from the leaker, here is what I always want to say when the issue is abortion. The vast majority of human beings on both sides are utterly sincere and operating out of their best understanding of life. Yes, there were plenty of people the past 50 years who used “the issue” to accrue money and power. But this long life tells me the overwhelming majority of people held their views for serious reasons. They sincerely saw the prohibition of abortion as a sin against women; they sincerely saw abortion on demand as a sin against life.

You have to respect the opposing view.

And you have to respect that as a wound, the Roe v. Wade decision never healed, never could. Josh Prager, in his stupendous history of that decision, “The Family Roe,” noted the singular fact of this ruling: Other high court decisions that liberalized the social order—desegregation of schools, elimination of prayer in the schools, interracial marriage, gay marriage—were followed by public acceptance, even when the rulings were very unpopular. Most came to have overwhelming support. But not Roe. That was the exception. It never stopped roiling America. Mr. Prager: “Opposition to Roe became more hostile after its issuance.”

Why? Because all the other decisions were about how to live, and Roe was about death. Justice Alito seems to echo this thought in his draft opinion, which would turn the questions of legality and illegality over to each state. This is not a solution to the issue, it is a way of managing it—democratically.

Some states, New York and California for instance, have already passed their own liberal abortion laws. Some states, such as Texas and Utah, will ban most or all abortions within their boundaries. It will be uneven, a jumble. But the liberal states will have their liberal decision, the conservative states their conservative ones, and that is as close to resolving the dilemma as we, as human beings in a huge and varied nation, will get.

I respect and agree with the Alito draft, didn’t think Roe was correct or even logical, and came to see the decision as largely a product of human vanity. Of all the liberal jurists who have faulted it, the one who sticks in the mind was Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who after questioning Roe’s reasoning said, in 1985, that it appeared “to have provoked, not resolved, conflict.” It did.

I am pro-life for the most essential reason: That’s a baby in there, a human child. We cannot accept as a society—we really can’t bear the weight of this fact, which is why we keep fighting—that we have decided that we can extinguish the lives of our young. Another reason, and maybe it veers on mysticism, is that I believe the fact of abortion, that it exists throughout the country, that we endlessly talk about it, that the children grow up hearing this and absorbing it and thinking, “We end the life within the mother here,” “It’s just some cells”—that all of this has released a kind of poison into the air, that we breathed it in for 50 years and it damaged everything. Including of course our politics.

It left both parties less healthy. The Democrats locked into abortion as party orthodoxy, let dissenters know they were unwelcome, pushed ever more extreme measures to please their activists, and survived on huge campaign donations from the abortion industry itself. Republican politicians were often insincere on the issue, and when sincere almost never tried to explain their thinking and persuade anyone. They took for granted and secretly disrespected their pro-life groups, which consultants regularly shook down for campaign cash. They ticked off the “I’m pro-life” box in speeches, got applause and went on to talk about the deficit. They were forgiven a great deal because of their so-called stand, and this contributed, the past 25 years, to the party’s drift.

Abortion distorted both parties.

Advice now, especially for Republican men, if Roe indeed is struck down: Do not be your ignorant selves. Do not, as large dumb misogynists, start waxing on about how if a woman gets an illegal abortion she can be jailed. Don’t fail to embrace compromise because you can make money on keeping the abortion issue alive. I want to say “Just shut your mouths,” but my assignment is more rigorous. It is to have a heart. Use the moment to come forward as human beings who care about women and want to give families the help they need. Align with national legislation that helps single mothers to survive. Support women, including with child-care credits that come in cash and don’t immediately go to child care, to help mothers stay at home with babies. Shelters, classes in parenting skills and life skills. All these exist in various forms: make them better, broader, bigger.

This is an opportunity to change your party’s reputation.

Democrats too. You have been given a gift and don’t know it. You think, “Yes, we get a hot new issue for 2022!” But you always aggress more than you think. The gift is that if, as a national matter, the abortion issue is removed, you could be a normal party again. You have no idea, because you don’t respect outsiders, how many people would feel free to join your party with the poison cloud dispersed. You could be something like the party you were before Roe: liberal on spending and taxation, self-consciously the champion of working men and women, for peace and not war. As you were in 1970.

Or, absent the emotionally cohering issue of abortion, you can choose to further align with extremes within the culture, and remain abnormal.

But the end of Roe could be a historic gift for both parties, a chance to become their better selves.

And if Roe is indeed overturned, God bless our country that can make such a terrible, coldhearted mistake and yet, half a century later, redress it, right it, turn it around. Only a thinking nation could do that. Only a feeling nation could do that. We’re not dead yet, there are still big things going on here.

We Are All Ukraine

 

We've all seen the images.  They remind us of the horror of war.  The affirm for us the devastation of heavy munitions, be they be delivered by artillery or from the air.  The tragedy of civilian injuries and deaths who are in the line of fire are on the front pages of every news website and newspaper.  There is no escaping it.  

Now we've all seen the deliberate killing of civilians by Russians.  Not just killing, but horrific stories are emerging.  Bit by bit, the stories of dead people with their hands tied behind their backs, of poorly disguised mass graves, of torture chambers.  The most excruciating stories involve children.  10 year old girls who were multiple rape victims and then killed.  Women with swastika's burned into their skin.  Beheadings.  It's all nauseating.  Since most of the men are off actively defending the country, most of the deaths are of women and children.  And there is no doubt in most people's minds that this has occurred.  Decry social media all you want and I'll in large measure be right there with you, but Twitter has brought the world images and videos that would otherwise have never seen the light of day.

We've now seen that the Russians have come out blaming Ukraine for these atrocities.  They claim that Ukraine is killing its own citizens, bombing its own cities, and creating these devastating scenes to garner world support.  As my Dad might have said, "that dog won't hunt".  The Russians are despicable bullies.  So no one will believe it, but they will continue to promote these lies.  But the other thing they are are survivors.  Think Leningrad.  I don't agree with Biden on much, but the thing I do is that Putin is a war criminal and has to go.  I'm not too interested in trial.  I'd opt for other means.

All of this has me thinking of how the U.S. has reacted in past wars of my lifetime.  The fact is that the U.S. has been reluctant to get involved in large-scale wars for our entire history.  Now don't get me wrong, we've been involved in plenty of noble (WWII) and stupid (Vietnam) efforts.  But our instinct is to sit back and make decisions of support based on our interests.  After all, we are an island nation surrounded by wide oceans and mostly friendly neighbors.  But there have been times when we were compelled to act. 

We're told by leaders in our country and NATO that the West is providing a massive amount of weaponry to Ukraine.  You can listen to almost any official in the know and they will rattle off a list of equipment that is being sent forward and how much we're spending.  Of course, there is no timetable on any of this so whether it's a list that is sitting on some bureaucrats desk in Washington or Brussels or is being urgently and actively pursued is unknown.  It's probably somewhere in the middle.  I also believe there are some classified systems that are being provided which will make a difference...but that's another story.

So as I sit here in the comfort of my secure home in SoCal, it's pretty easy to make pronouncements regarding what we should be doing.  So what should we do?  All in or stay out of it?  Should we gather a coalition of the willing in NATO and drive the Russians out?  Should we continue to supply equipment, intelligence and advice so Putin doesn't have an excuse to respond, possibly with nuclear weapons?  Should we pull back what we're doing today and watch from a distance?  

The atrocities being perpetuated in Ukraine make it compelling (at least for me) that at a minimum the pressure ramps up.  The Russians need to be isolated and broken.   Ideally, a worldwide boycott of Russian oil should be proposed and implemented.  That's the economic sanction that will make a difference.  Other stuff is interesting, but if their oil exports shrivel up they are doomed.  This would require that we backtrack from our severely impactful restrictive green policies, but so be it in the short run to hurt Russia.  Militarily, we should increase providing anything that the Ukrainians want.  And we should provide it quickly.  

The key question is "what about boots on the ground"?  For me the answer would be...maybe.  I definitely believe we should never rule anything out.  We are seeing a Ukrainian military that has been able (with help) to not only defend their country but also push the Russians back.  So if that continues, then we should continue to watch and support.  But if they start to weaken and to take more casualties than they can absorb, then maybe.   There have slimply been too many times in history when the civilized world watched bullies like Putin devastate other countries with no consequences.  Many will say that he has nuclear weapons and we can't provide a provocation for use.  But being afraid of the bully's actions has never worked.  Never.   There are examples of this throughout history.

But here's the danger.   People today have short attention spans.  Same with the media.  The 24-hour news cycle rules.  It's been more than a month since the invasion so people are already starting to turn to other things.  Depending on your news source you've probably seen other things starting to dominate the news.  One thing that helps to keep Ukraine in the news is their President, Zelenskyy.  He has been heroic in rallying support for his people and as long as he continues, the media will pay attention.  Couple that with the devastating images coming out of the country and support will continue...for now.

Ukrainians have proven to be heroic figures.  In this world of conciliation, they have proven to have a spine.  Rather than capitulate to the bully or run away or give up, they are standing and fighting.  But the wages of this heroism are high.  In many parts of the country their homes and land has been obliterated. They have had to send their women and children to safety while the men fight for their homes.  They have conducted guerrilla warfare against the 3rd biggest army in the world.  They've done this in the midst of a bitter winter.  By all accounts, with help from the West they are winning.  Or at least holding their own.  It's astounding and was never predictable.

I like to think that Americans are cut from the same cloth.  Maybe not all...but enough.  History is not static.  It ebbs and flows.  I'm positive that the vast majority of Americans think it could never happen here and to a large extent they may be right.  Or at least it would be difficult to envision it here for the foreseeable future.  When I look around I sometimes think we'll be engaged in an internal fight before we have to repel invaders.  We've tried that once before.  It didn't end well.  I don't have any answers and am as distressed as the next guy over our internal dissension.  When you look at Ukraine today, it's an obvious case of the bad guys against the good guys.  Everyone wants to be on the side of the good guys.  In that sense...."We are all Ukraine".   In our case it might be the good guys against the good guys.  And that would be an epic tragedy.  

Compelling

As I've done previously, sometimes I read something that is so compelling I just haver to share it.  I've been reading Bari Weiss' "Common Sense" blog for a while now and it is consistently great.  She has wonderful guest bloggers and Bari herself is about as aligned with my thinking as anything I read.  Today, her post is compelling.  It's titled "Things Worth Fighting For" and that is about as perfect a title as I can think of.  It says everything I would say if I were close to being as smart and eloquent as she is.  You can read it here but I'm going to post the whole thing below.  It certainly makes you think.

It feels like we are living through President Volodomyr Zelensky’s moment in history. Kyiv is being shelled and has been for the past three weeks. But the former comedian remains at his desk, wearing his army t-shirt and sitting in his green leather chair on Bankova Street in the center of the city. More than two million Ukranians have fled the country, but he will not budge.

“The fight is here,” he said, responding to an offer from the Americans to help him evacuate. And then, reportedly: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” (I’m in Florida right now, and I saw a guy wearing a t-shirt with the line printed in yellow and blue—already there are t-shirts!)

There is a reason that line—apocryphal or not—instantly became a meme. It is because we live in an era in which acting like sheep has become the norm. In which cowardice is the default. In which the ideas of leadership and sacrifice seemed like dead letters. 

And yet here was the real article. A leader showing courage, real courage, and in doing so inspiring bravery in others that they did not think themselves capable of. Duty, responsibility, moral clarity—he is breathing life into virtues many Americans thought were on life support or already dead.

Zelensky knows what he is fighting for. “We are all at war,” he said in an address to Ukraine. “Everywhere people defend themselves, although they do not have weapons. But these are our people. They have courage. Dignity. And hence the ability to go out and say: I'm here, it's mine, and I won't give it away. My city. My community. My Ukraine.”

And he knows what he is willing to do to get it: In his speech last week to British Parliament he said it through the words of Churchill: “We will fight till the end, at sea, in the air. We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets.” He promised to “never surrender.”

My favorite Zelensky line of all though—the most profound thing of many profound things in these shocking weeks—came when a reporter asked him how he was doing given the circumstances. Here’s what he said: “My life today is wonderful. I believe that I am needed. That’s the most important sense of life, that you are needed, that you are not just an emptiness that breathes and walks and eats something.” 

Cynics will point out that Zelensky is an actor, adept at delivering lines, even at playing a president. They’ll say that he knows how to tug at our heart strings and he is doing it purposefully to draw the West into the war and get Ukraine the help it needs. Maybe. Probably.

But this isn’t a movie. His life really is on the line. And that explanation, in any case, does not account for the millions of ordinary Ukrainians who are taking up arms to defend their land. 

In one video I watched a computer programmer waiting in line to get his weapon in Kyiv to fight “the Russian invaders.”

“Their objective, clearly, seems to be the occupation of my entire country and the destruction of everything that I love. I’m just a regular civilian. I have nothing to do with war or any other thing like it. And I wouldn’t really want to participate in anything like this. But I don’t really have any choice. This is my home.” 

In another I watched a choir in Odessa sing. I came to find out that the name of the song they were singing is called “Choir of Hebrew Slaves,” from the opera Nabucco. It recalls the tragedy of the destruction of the Jewish temple in Jerusalem at the hands of the Babylonians: “O, my homeland, so beautiful and lost!” 

Listening to such people speak (and sing) so plainly is deeply moving and inspiring. It is also, if I am honest, unsettling.

Why? 

Why is witnessing such courage uncomfortable?

It is because I cannot help but notice the gap between them and us. Between the bigness of their vision and their mission and the smallness of ours. Between their moral clarity and our moral confusion. Between their spine and our spinelessness. Between their courage and our epidemic of cowardice. Between their commitment to civilization and our resignation to chaos. 

Watching Zelensky and his people reminds me what we have lost. Of how uncertain and fragile we have become. 

Bearing witness to Ukraine’s answers forces me to ask some hard questions about us—questions I worry we have forgotten how to ask: How would we act if the guns were to our heads? Would we similarly feel no choice but to fight for our home, for everything we love? Would we have the courage to live by the values we profess if our backs were to the wall? Or the sense of national unity? Or have we gotten so comfortable, so coddled, so removed from the world of flesh and blood, that we have forgotten how to name those values at all.

We are not yet in an actual war. I pray we never are. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t in an ideological one. We are—and have been for a while now. And it is one that we—heirs to the Enlightenment and the American experiment—are losing very badly. 

We are losing because we are unserious.

We say: I am a brand. Follow me. Like me.

Zelensky says: I am not iconic. Ukraine is iconic. 

We ask: Is America ill-gotten?

Zelensky says: Ukraine is mine.

We say: Words put us in danger.

Zelensky says: I will never surrender.

We LARP on Twitter. And work hard to get people fired for bad Halloween costumes.

Ukranians line up for guns and say: I want to defend what I love. 

We take down statues of our founding fathers. Of Lincoln, Washington, Jefferson.

They say: Glory to Ukraine. 

We say: there is no real truth, only power.

They say: Might does not make right.

We say: anyone who disagrees with me is a Nazi. (Which, by the way, is exactly what Putin said to justify his invasion.)

They say: We are one people, united.

But the world is changing fast. History is roaring back to life. And the difference between the world of Zelensky’s Ukraine and ours is only a matter of degree and time. 

One of the core lessons of what’s happening right now in Ukraine is that fighting for noble causes matters—indeed, it is the only thing that matters. It can mean the difference between life and death. Between freedom and slavery. 

Everything happening in Ukraine right now is happening because human beings are willing to fight for it, to bend the arc of history. What would happen if we could be stirred to care about causes bigger than ourselves, our comforts, our reputations, what comes up when we Google ourselves? 

If we are the home front of the free world—and I believe we are and must be—what are the principles that should guide us? What are the things worth fighting for? 

I want to suggest three of them.

The first is individual liberty. Individual liberty is worth fighting for. 

Since the war began, the following things have happened: 

Russia House, a restaurant in Washington, D.C. near Dupont Circle, was vandalized more than once—its windows were broken and its door smashed in.

In Vancouver, St. Sophia’s Orthodox Church had red paint thrown on the front doors.

The Montreal Symphony canceled a performance by the Russian virtuoso Alexander Malofeev. Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Opera dropped one of its most celebrated sopranos and replaced the Russian singer with a Ukrainian. And a Formula 1 racing team fired the Russian driver Nikita Mazepin. 

The Paralympics Games—these are games for handicapped people—banned Russians from participating. In the United Kingdom, a planned tour of the Russian State Ballet of Siberia was canceled.

Oh, and let’s not forget the cats: The International Cat Federation has banned Russian felines. Seriously.

Michael McFaul, who served as Obama’s ambassador to Russia, wrote on Twitter: “There are no more 'innocent' 'neutral' Russians anymore.” Think about that for a second. And ask yourself where you might have stood after Pearl Harbor when told how important it was to put Americans of Japanese descent into giant holding pens. 

This is a very incomplete list, only a few of the latest victims in a series of never-ending moral panics.

But this mob mentality—presenting itself now as anti-Russian bigotry, but as something entirely different a week or two from now—can never, ever be made normal. It cuts against the most foundational principle of liberal democracy: individual liberty. 

As my friend Jacob Siegel put it in Tablet: “The notion that individuals should have their employment conditioned on the actions of a foreign government, or their willingness to denounce those actions, is frankly gross and authoritarian—the kind of thing I was raised to believe happened in Russia, not the United States.” 

In free and just societies, we judge people as individuals, not as members of a group. We judge them based on their deeds, not based on the deeds of their parents. Or people of the same gender. Or ZIP code. Or skin color.

The fetishization of group identity, whether by religion or race or gender or whatever, is poison. It leads to a zero-sum war within groups, and the subjugation and, ultimately, the dehumanization of the individual. 

The great achievement of America was to move beyond bloodline. It was to say—for the first time in human history—that we are not constrained by the circumstances of our birth or the sins or merits of our mothers and fathers. We are bound together not by clan or tribe but by a commitment to rights and principles. This distinction is core to what makes America exceptional—the prioritizing of the value of individual life over that of the kinship group.

That is why any ideology—by whatever name it goes by, no matter how seductive— that grants some people a demerit  and others extra credit because of the circumstances of their birth, that denies our individual value and our common humanity, is illiberal and un-American. It needs to be totally rejected.

To build a strong home front in this new era requires us to recover the radical, world-transforming proposition that we are all created equal because we are all created in the image of God.

The second thing worth fighting for is America. America is worth the fight. 

The other day on The View, I watched as a man with a Harvard law degree and a denizen of the most exclusive institutions in America, stumbled on the real problem facing the world: “The Constitution is trash,” he said.

If you are looking for the definition of the privilege of living in America, of living in a country with the First Amendment, it is the ability to say something so foolish on daytime television.  

But what struck me was that he actually homed in on the right pressure point: The Constitution, the thing he was so blithely tearing down, is precisely the thing we need to recover. We need to recover, above all, the “Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our posterity.”

We do this, as the Founders did, by resisting tyranny in all its forms.

That means refusing to participate in moral panics. It means resisting mob mentality, since mob justice is no justice at all. It also means opposing any entity that uses its power to undermine democracy and strip us of individual liberty. 

There are a thousand examples I could point to. But just consider one: Facebook announced last week that even though it’s wrong to call for some people to be killed, it’s not wrong to call for others to be. I’m serious. Facebook, which bars users from expressing hate speech, decided to allow people in Ukraine, Poland and Russia to call for violence against Putin, Russia and Russian soldiers. Then, Sunday, perhaps because of the backlash, the company reversed course: No assassination advocacy allowed on Instagram. At least for now.

I believe what Putin is doing is evil. I suspect you do, too. But what’s allowed to be said—and not—should not be left to the mandarins of Menlo Park. 

Why have we resigned ourselves to living in a country where a few companies have arrogated to themselves the power of government even though we never elected them. Companies that control the 21st-century public square but have no obligations to any kind of digital First Amendment? 

The Founders may not have been able to imagine the internet, but they surely could have understood the danger of a centralized force that had the power to determine what people could say and what they couldn’t. They would have called that tyranny.

If you want to understand why some people have been so cynical about this war—why they almost seem to be rooting for Putin—this is one of the major reasons why. It is because many Americans notice that the most powerful forces in America are exhibiting the kind of behavior we expect from countries like Russia….and that they aren’t being opposed by those who claim to be our moral betters. Instead, they are being cheered on.

They see American companies toying with our freedom of conscience and free expression, and they wonder: Sorry, which country has the problem with totalitarianism? Which country has a social credit system?

They see an elite that has lied to them about peaceful protests and Russiagate and masks and school closures. An attorney general who suggested parents who stood up for kids were domestic terrorists. A CDC that covered up science. A president that abandoned our allies in Afghanistan. A White House, right now, that is pouring one out for Ukraine . . . while using Moscow to negotiate a deal with Iran. An administration that opposes fracking and nuclear power while buying gas from despots. They see an elite that says that words are violence but violence is just a hallucination. That leaps from hashtag campaign to hashtag campaign, from BLM to vaccine mandates . . . and they think: Nope. I’m out. They think: the smart bet is to bet against that.

I want to say two things about this posture:

The first is that one can acknowledge the lies and the hypocrisies of our experts and our institutions. I do. But acknowledging it says nothing about the reality that Russia is actually bombing maternity hospitals. That it is killing journalists.

And if you have hardened yourself to that—if you hate us or part of us more than you hate that—then you have lost the plot. Then you are justifying the unjustifiable.

The second thing is that you can oppose the lies and the hypocrisies without giving up on America and its exceptional proposition. Indeed, the way to recover America isn’t to become moral relativists or isolationists or apologists for evil. It’s to look our moral and practical failings in the face and fix them.  

It’s also to recognize what we have gotten right. I heard that in Ketanji Brown Jackson’s unapologetic formulation of gratitude when she was nominated to the Supreme Court:

“If I’m fortunate enough to be confirmed as the next associate justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, I can only hope that my life and career, my love of this country and the Constitution, and my commitment to upholding the rule of law and the sacred principles upon which this great nation was founded, will inspire future generations of Americans,” she said. How shocking in its clarity.

I listened to a talk the other day in which a historian, an expert on Russia, said that societies that are conquered from outside can recover. But societies that destroy themselves from within cannot. 

We need to right our ship not just for ourselves but for the world. The world needs us to be the moral actors we used to be, because we need to engage in the world. And we need to be because civilization has to be defended.

Civilization. Civilization is worth fighting for. 

If the past three weeks have reminded us of anything, at root, it is that the line between civilization and what we might call uncivilization is paper thin.

Just ask the people of Odessa, who not four weeks ago were going to the opera and the parks and the movies and who are now, mothers and their children, knitting camouflage and filling sandbags and learning how to shoot. They are standing at the borderland between democracy and subjugation. They will tell you.

Or ask Serhiy Perebeinis. 

Last week, his wife, Tatiana Perebeinis, 43, along with his daughter, Alise, 9, and son, Nikita, 18, tried to flee the town of Irpin, a suburb about 15 minutes from Kyiv. They had just dashed across a partially destroyed bridge over the Irpin River into Kyiv when a Russian mortar hit. They were all killed. So was the church volunteer who was trying to escort them to safety.

Serhiy was in Eastern Ukraine at the time helping his sick mother. He found out that his entire family had been murdered after seeing a photo of their dead bodies on Twitter. 

Tatiana was the chief accountant of a Palo Alto start-up called SE Ranking. And I just keep thinking to myself: what would the life of this family be if they had not been born into a country that Putin decided actually belonged to him? It is the difference between a weekend family hike in California and a weekend family funeral in Ukraine.

Reckoning with the flaws and failings of past generations, grappling with our history are part of the civilization for which we are fighting. But that cannot be confused for a second with the zeal to purge and purify, to cancel and punish and tear down, to the nihilists who say we have to repudiate the tools that allow us to improve and progress and forgive. The tools that have made our civilization the freest in all of history.

Western civilization is an enormous achievement—the gradual development of thousands of years of human will and wisdom, of political, economic and cultural capital. We should treat it with the preciousness it deserves. Pretending as if what we have is bad or ill-gotten is beyond ignorant, and the ideologues trying to drag us back into pre-Enlightenment tribalism should be seen for what they are: useful idiots doing the bidding of Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran. We should never indulge them. We should say their ideas are wrong plainly and without apology.

It’s time to set that kind of relativism aside. Time to judge and discern again. Time to choose.

There are complicated debates to be had about no-fly-zones and NATO expansion. But there are other questions that every single American is equipped to answer:

Do we root for Russia, and its partners in Beijing and Tehran, or do we cheer on Zelensky, and with him London, Paris, and Washington, D.C.? Do we imagine a future in which each citizen is closely monitored by the state, assigned a social score and tracked by tech giants that record her every move, or would we prefer free and unfettered speech and respect for privacy? Are we ok with concentration camps for religious minorities and corporations whose profits are downstream of genocide, or do we believe that every human life is sacred? 

Do we say, sorry we can’t do anything about the Chinese Communist Party, it is too strong and we are too intertwined and the price would be too high. Or do we say: no. That’s not true. Look at what Churchill did in 1940. Look what Zelensky is doing right now. Look what a nation can achieve when the stakes are their highest, when their hearts and minds are focused on one mission.

Do we believe in nation-states with sovereignty, or land grabs and might making right? Do we fight for civilization or do we resign ourselves to decline? Do we insist that nothing is destined, that the choice of decline or ascendance is ours?

I know what I choose.

There are people who fought very hard for the freedoms and privileges that we have. And a lot of Americans are using those freedoms to turn on other Americans. To suggest that disagreeing about the war makes them traitors.

Others are sleepwalking. Giving them up without a second thought. That’s what Putin and the rest of the world’s tyrants are counting on. They are counting on the fact that the superpower that considers receiving groceries in under an hour its major achievement won’t interrupt a good online sale for anyone else’s sake.

Zelensky’s wisdom—and what he is calling on in us—is a rejection of that myopia. “The world offers you comfort. But you were not made for comfort. You were made for greatness.” Who knows if Zelensky’s ever heard that line from Pope Benedict but he seems to know it in his bones. Once upon a time, so did we. 

It was America that once gave the world the courage and the inspiration to keep the fight going. It was our founders that themselves stood against evil tyrants, who demanded glory for their fledgling democracy. These days, it’s the guy in Kyiv with the army green t-shirt. 

God bless him. And may we all take on his fight. For his sake and for ours. 

Is "Never Again" Even Relevant Anymore?

 One of the most consistent sayings, or thoughts, or determinations that emerged out of the Holocaust in WWII was the term "Never Again".  Who hasn't heard it?  It was all about the world's people and governments never again allowing such a terrible thing to happen.  Never again could such a heinous thing to occur.  It is a blight on humanity.  And over the years it has morphed from never again allowing the Jewish people to be the victim of such unspeakable horror and murderous violence to never again allowing genocide to occur right in front of our faces.  

World governments have generally agreed to take action to prevent the recurrence of such events.  There are treaty organizations, alliances, UN peacekeepers, and governments in leadership positions around the world that have proclaimed loud and clear that they will respond to atrocities in a rapid manner and do what is necessary to protect people.  But have they done that?  

But of course, the reality is quite different than a brave declaration in their home capitals or places like Brussels.  It's one thing to boldly and bravely declare support and that "whatever is required" will be undertaken to protect the innocent from despotic bullys.  It's quite another to do it.

The reality is that there have been plenty of examples of egregious harm being done to one population by another and, although the harm has been deadly, so many times the world looked the other way.  Take the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.  What they have done to the country, and in particular it's women is an atrocity by any estimation.  But Afghanistan is a special kind of hard.  It's a tribal society that has proven to be impermeable to outside influence.  Look at the list of any of the several African countries that have leaders who have inflicted death and destruction on both its populace and neighboring populations.  And once again, it's tribal.  Making a difference in some of those places would be conquest and rule.  That's simply not in the cards for most first world countries.  We hear frequently about the atrocities that China inflicts on religious minorities.  And to go full circle, the Palestinian hatred against Jews is routinely taken up by the progressive left in this county who seem to have forgotten..."never again".  So no situation around the world is easy.  The only easy thing is saying..."never again".

So 2022 arrives and the situation in Ukraine is slapping the world square in the face.  I don't have to describe it because it's right out there clearly in open news sources.  The invasion by the Russian bullys, the heroic resistance by the Ukrainian people, the horrendous plight of refugees fleeing for their lives, or the pleas for assistance by their inspiring leader...it's all out there for us to see every day.  

The world looks at what is happening and the emotions range from horror to anger to sympathy to resolve.  And don't get me wrong, there are things being done.  There is equipment and supplies flowing to the aid of the resistance fighters in Ukraine.  I saw this chart that a friend posted over on FB from Financial Times and it is evidence of the support for Ukraine.  The West is generally doing a credible job of supplying Ukraine with all the implements of war.  Is it enough?  No.  

But one sad fact remains.  They are gonna get the hell beat out of them.  The Russian Bear isn't going to stop.  They are using tactics designed to kill, maim and inflict terror.  They are not using precision weapons on targeted operations.  They are putting artillery and tank rounds into apartment houses, banks, hospitals, transportation hubs, and generally whatever the hell else they feel like obliterating.  We're only a couple weeks into this war and the images emerging from inside Ukraine are already almost unbearable.  

I'm just one guy posting musings on a silly little blog.  And it's pretty easy sitting in my warm, comfortable house surrounded with the comforts of home to postulate on what action the world will take to stop the genocide.  Because that's what it is.  I'm not advocating any sort of specific action by the U.S. but I do wonder what it will take for action to be taken?  What kinds of heinous images have to be slammed on the doorstep of the civilized world to decide to stop the monster from Moscow?  And who would lead us through such a dangerous time?  But that issue is probably the subject of another post.  Of course the danger is that a wider war spills out of Ukraine and becomes another World War.  And the ultimate danger is that one side or the other initiates a nuclear attack.  But while the playground analogy is simplistic it applies.  Let the bully get away with one thing, and he's gonna take another.  Someone's gotta stop him or we're all eventually going to lose our lunch money.

We have 24/7 media in every aspect of our lives so that there are millions of armchair national security strategists.  If Hitler would've faced today's media in the 1930's I wonder if he would have been as successful as he was in killing jews and decimating Europe.  We were looking the other way for many years.  It took a devastating surprise attack on a sleepy Sunday morning in Pearl Harbor to drag us into the fight.  

So I keep wondering, will some country or alliance of countries somewhere say this cannot stand?  Will some country or alliance of countries somewhere stand up and join the fight?  What will it take beyond what we've seen?  And will some country or alliance of countries somewhere say, Never Again...and mean it?  

Sanctions

In my last post about sanctions I mentioned sanctions and my belief that they didn't do anything to impact the leadership in their intent to prosecute a conflict.  However, the fast moving actions of the last few days and the unprecedented coalescing of western nations to inflict harm on Russia, and especially Putin for its invasion of Ukraine is unlike most other actions that we've seen in recent history.  

One of the things we are seeing is more and more concern regarding cybersecurity and the impact of financial sanctions that are being imposed on Russia.  Just like people, desperate countries do desperate things.  And when the pace of change is as rapid as we've seen in this instance, calamities can occur in the blink of an eye.  Who would have imagined that we'd be where we are two weeks ago?  

One of the reliable sources I check for info on both Naval and national security issues is CDR Salamander's blog.  He's not always right (who is) but he always has thought provoking posts.  If you're interested, and you should be, check out his post today here.  

These are dangerous times.  I'm not talking 9/11.  An event that caused specific action to go after a rogue terrorist.  I'm talking Pearl Harbor.  The actions of a nation-state that sparked a World War.  Pray for cooler heads to prevail.  

Initial Thoughts on Ukraine

There is a pretty fundamental truth when it comes to war that was best articulated by the great strategist Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz.  He said that "in war everything is simple, but even the most simple thing is complex". This leads to the famous "fog of war" that so many have articulated.  We are seeing that today in Ukraine.  In a country the size of Texas with 45 million people, an invasion with the intent to conquer is not simple.  That's fundamentally why the Russians surrounded the country with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and massive military machine to overwhelm the Ukrainian military and it's people.  As of today, the reports are that the going is not so smooth for the Russians.  But that's today.  This will be a long game...as everything in Europe is.  

As the images and stories come in from the front lines, the feelings are overwhelming.  Here are a few of mine.

• The Ukrainians will not go gently.  They are a proud people with a strong sense of nationalism and pride of country.  One of the things that is true about Europe is that over the centuries borders and countries have shifted and changed.  But today is today.  However they evolved, whatever ethnicity they claim,  whoever they have been, today they are Ukrainians.  They will be and are fighting.  Fiercely.  And I don't know this for certain, but I'm pretty certain that when the ultimate overwhelming force of Russian soldiers take over, there will be a guerrilla war that will continue to give the conquerors fits.  Think Vietnam.  Think Afghanistan.  Hell, think of the U.S. 1770's.
• Putin's true colors have come out.  His justification for war, his crazy rantings about the "Nazis and drug addicts" populating Ukraine have shown him to the tyrant and thug he is.  His claim about the true position of Ukraine and its link to Russia is hogwash.  This is meant for the folks back home and from all accounts it's not playing well.  Some say Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union.  I don't think so. I think he's trying to recreate (or create anew) the Russian empire.  Will he stop at Ukraine.  No one knows but the spill over and continuation could get ugly.
• The war correspondents reporting from Ukraine are doing a good job.  By any measure, they are in a precarious position and could lose their lives for this story.  All of the media companies have reporters on the ground.  I've been watching many of them and for my money the BBC is doing the best job.  Maybe not surprising.
• President Zelensky is proving to be a monumentally great leader.  He is staying.  His family is staying.  He is communicating and clearly leading the country.  One thinks of Churchill.  I don't know if he'll survive, but if he does he will be revered and held up as an example of great leadership in extremis.  An easy comparison to make is how Zelensky is behaving versus the President of Afghanistan and his cowardly fleeing during our humiliating retreat.  There is no comparison.
• The stories of heroism are mind boggling.  The population have been given weapons and asked to fight.  And many are.  Grocers, postmen, teachers, and so many other regular people fighting the Russian Army.  The Russian Army that is by any measure one of the most capable in the world.  I saw a video of a man saying goodbye to his wife and small daughter as he put them on a bus for the border with a great certainty that he wouldn't see them again.  Mind boggling.  We are hearing more and more stories every day of heroes doing what they have to do in defense of their country.  The soldier who blew himself up when he took down a bridge to slow down the Russians.  The 13 borders guards on a small island in the Black Sea who told a Russian frigate to "go fuck themselves" when they received a demand to surrender.  They were subsequently all killed by a missile from that ship.  These stories are not stories of futility.  They are stories of heroism.  They are stories of a people who realize that there are some things worth dying over.
• With hindsight being 20-20, it's clear that the west should have been assisting Ukraine since the first invasion in the Crimea in 2014.  We should have been arming, training, and supporting them very aggressively.   From my perspective they should have been granted entry to NATO.  Arguably, if that would have happened it would have been much more difficulty for Putin to make his move.  I'm hearing just now that NATO is calling up it's emergency response force.  If that is true, the risk of escalation is going up.  Think Hitler and his annexation of Chechoslovakia, Austria, Poland, etc during his rein of terror.  But whatever the next days and weeks bring, we must do everything possible to support Ukraine.
• I have had a skepticism regarding sanctions since my days as a student at National War College when I studied them.  Simply put, they impact the people of the country, but will have little impact on tyrants and dictators.  Sanctions are an expected action and they play well in the media, but they are generally ineffective on the actions taking place on the ground.  Additionally, sanctions can be tough of not so tough.  If you peel the onion on the current sanctions, you'd find that there are other things we could be doing, but aren't.  Good question is why not?  But what Ukraine needs right now are weapons, intelligence and resources to protect their country.  That's it.  The U.S. and the west in general should be pulling out all the stops to get them what they need.
• This whole situation reminds me of what the general outcome is of appeasing dictators who always have designs on expanding their empire.  In 2020 China took Hong Kong.  In 2021 the Taliban retook Afghanistan.  In 2022 the Russians are making a move on Ukraine.  It doesn't take much imagination to perceive that in 2023 the Chinese may finally make their move on Taiwan.  During all of these debacles, the west and the U.S. have done very little.  It makes me think of the 1930's.  All the world dithered and appeased Hitler and we saw the result.  Only one voice rose to oppose this folly.  Thanks God for Churchill or who knows where we'd be.
• It is axiomatic that the world is getting smaller.  That technology is shrinking everything and it is not only getting smaller, it's getting faster.  And the links and webs in all economies are overlapping and complicated.  That brings me to the realization that we are never disconnected.  We buy a lot of oil from Russia.  Russia is a huge exporter of a lot of fundamental commodities like wheat and manure to name a few.  Today, we should be evaluating all of those issues and how we overcome the dependencies.  One of the things we could be doing pretty easily is at least temporarily increase our oil production.  But I get that Biden is beholden to some folks who don't want that to happen.  I just wonder what it will take to rethink energy policy, at least temporarily.

There are more but that's enough.  Things are unfolding so quickly that it's difficult to capture all the thoughts.  I do have one glimmer of good news.  There is reporting that both sides are exploring negotiations.  The Russians have gone so far to request the Israelis to act as intermediary.  At least that is the reporting.  Perhaps the difficulties he's encountered have caused Putin to rethink.  Perhaps the casualties of ordinary people has caused Zelensky to reconsider a statement of neutrality.  Whatever the case, whatever they can do to draw this to an end would be good.

It was another famous strategist, Sun Tsu who said, "He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight".  Let's hope the forces aligned against each other discover that it's time not to fight.

The Olympics in China

 

So the Olympics are here again.  I'm usually wildly enthusiastic about watching the games.  And that's both Winter and Summer.  I am glued to the TV for all the events.  Last night I watched women's hockey between Finland and Canada.  I mean, when would I ever do that except the Olympics?  

The pageantry is stupendous, the performances run from routine to world record breaking, the athletes are for the most part hugely admirable, and the venues are impressive.  To watch these mostly kids achieving a life long goal is heartwarming.  My view is that just being there and competing is probably the experience of a lifetime for most of them.  Of course, there a few that go to multiple Olympics and maybe it becomes somewhat routine, but I think for most of them they are wide-eyed and just want to take it all in.  For me it's not about the medals and I sort of disdain the medal count, but I have to admit to getting somewhat misty eyed when an American ascends the medal stand and the Star Spangled Banner is played.  In other words, when it comes to the Olympics, I'm all in.  All the time.

Having said that, I'm conflicted about these games.  China is definitely an oppressive police state that is on the move.  There is no doubt that they are our major competitors in the world and a confrontation is coming.  I'm not going to predict how it will unfold, but it's coming.   If you think that China is going to let Taiwan exist indefinitely, you're living in a dream world.  And that's not even to address the disputed island in the South China Sea for starters.  They are preparing for a major confrontation.  It doesn't take too much research to verify that.  Taiwan is doing some things to prepare, but not enough.  Not nearly enough.  And we are not moving aggressively to support our allies and prepare for what is coming.  I won't get into the idiocy of our national security priorities here, but it's going to be ugly and the outcome is by no means certain.  Typically the media has been all over the place depending on their politics.  I don't think they really care about national security but human rights abuses get their attention.  That is a story that they can get their teeth into.  Some have been very critical and some have covered it lightly and some have ignored it.  But the reality is that Chinas record of human rights abuses, their underhanded business practices and their overt goal to expand their Communist propaganda around the world is pretty atrocious.  If you doubt that latter statement Google the "belt and road initiative".   

In full disclosure, wife and I visited China as tourists several years ago.  I had never been able to visit during my working life because of my security clearances, but I'd always wanted to see the "Middle Kingdom".  It was a fascinating trip that allowed for a glimpse of a culture and civilization so unknown to most Westerners.  And while it was educational and enlightening trip, we definitely saw the oppressive police state.  No matter how much they tried to gloss it over or deny it, it was always there.  And it was scary.  Suffice to say that I have no desire to return.

Having the Olympics there reminds me of the 1936 games in Berlin.  Looking back, that gave Hitler a huge propaganda platform, no matter the exploits of Jesse Owens.  I bet anyone who had a hand in the decision to go to Berlin regrets that decision.  At least I hope they do.  How about China?  Here's how Jim Geraghty over at National Review puts it:

Everyone with a role in these Olympic Games wants to avert their eyes, pretend everything is normal, and act like China is just another host country. Beijing thinks it is about to enjoy the benefits of a two-week propaganda festival broadcast to television screens and web browsers all around the world. And you’re unlikely to see or hear too much lambasting of the crimes and scandals of the Chinese regime in a lot of other mainstream news institutions. ABC is owned by Disney, NBC is owned by Comcast, CBS is part of Viacom, the Washington Post is owned by Amazon, Bloomberg is owned by . . . Bloomberg. All of these giant companies want continued access to the Chinese market, and the overwhelming majority of the leaders of these giant companies want to avoid antagonizing the Chinese government.

 James Quinn in the same magazine details the abuses:

• Starting in 2020, Beijing has all but eliminated Hong Kong’s autonomy and democracy with its imposition of a new national-security law. Effectively, the party criminalized any speech it deems to be dangerous — and claimed the ability to prosecute offenders anywhere in the world.
• Key pro-democracy figures were imprisoned or forced into exile, and the city’s authorities shuttered independent sources of news, most prominently Apple Daily.
• Campaigns against Christians, Falun Gong adherents, and other religious minorities in China continued apace, and in 2020, the party initiated a new effort in Inner Mongolia to assimilate ethnic Mongolians into Han nationalist identity, prohibiting schools there from using the Mongolian language.
• But the proximate cause of Western outrage over the Games is the genocide of Uyghurs.  A wealth of evidence amassed by researchers, journalists, and victims has over the past five years revealed that the Chinese government, in a campaign ordered by Xi, is working to eliminate that ethnic minority group.

The selection of a host country for the Olympics is a big deal.  A country that wants to be considered usually has to spend millions of dollars in the campaign and billions in constructing the venues.  It's about prestige, sports, tourism and above all else money.  If I'm guessing, I bet the Chinese bought the selection.  The International Olympic Committee isn't known as the most ethical body in the world and I could see a lot of nods and winks and ignoring some of the seedier sides of the culture in the selection.  I'm also would not be surprised if a fair amount of threat and bribery went into it.  But what do I know?  What's done is done.  All I'll say is that there are a lot of countries around the world that want to and could host the Olympics.  Picking one of the world's biggest oppressive, Communist police states probably isn't a good idea.  Here's hoping they won't repeat it.

I watched the opening ceremonies last night and two things struck me.  First is that NBC had a surprising amount of critical commentary about China.  Their analysis, while not harsh, did bring out many of the issues.  Second, they miked up the USA flag-bearer as he walked in.  He is on the Curling team who competed and won the gold medal last time.  And he was over the top amazed to be there.  To be a part of the Olympic Games was clearly a lifetime highlight and the fact that it was in an oppressive police state was secondary.  

So I see these opportunities for the athletes and its difficult, at least for me, to not come down on the side of rooting for the athletes.  It's a bit like the Super Bowl post I put up a few days ago.  I'm disgusted by the hypocrisy of the NFL and the half time performers, but I will watch the game.  I'm not going to let those assholes deprive me of watching a potentially great football game.  And I'm going to watch the Olympics in China.  It's not some statement of support of the oppressive police state.  It's not a sellout to the corporate world.  It's not that I don't think a reckoning is coming.  I'm just not willing to let those assholes deprive me of watching the Olympics.  Simple as that. 

We All Need Inspiration

Facebook reminded me today of a post I made two years ago.  I posted the closing words of the State of the Union address, which are copied below.  

"As the world bears witness tonight, America is a land of heroes. This is the place where greatness is born, where destinies are forged, and where legends come to life. This is the home of Thomas Edison and Teddy Roosevelt, of many great Generals, including Washington, Pershing, Patton, and MacArthur. This is the home of Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglass, Amelia Earhart, Harriet Tubman, the Wright Brothers, Neil Armstrong, and so many more. This is the country where children learn names like Wyatt Earp, Davy Crockett, and Annie Oakley. This is the place where the pilgrims landed at Plymouth and where Texas patriots made their last stand at the Alamo.

The American Nation was carved out of the vast frontier by the toughest, strongest, fiercest, and most determined men and women ever to walk the face of the Earth. Our ancestors braved the unknown; tamed the wilderness; settled the Wild West; lifted millions from poverty, disease, and hunger; vanquished tyranny and fascism; ushered the world to new heights of science and medicine; laid down the railroads, dug out canals, raised up the skyscrapers — and, ladies and gentlemen, our ancestors built the most exceptional Republic ever to exist in all of human history. And we are making it greater than ever before!

This is our glorious and magnificent inheritance.

We are Americans. We are the pioneers. We are the pathfinders. We settled the new world, we built the modern world, and we changed history forever by embracing the eternal truth that everyone is made equal by the hand of Almighty God.

America is the place where anything can happen! America is the place where anyone can rise. And here, on this land, on this soil, on this continent, the most incredible dreams come true!

This Nation is our canvas, and this country is our masterpiece. We look at tomorrow and see unlimited frontiers just waiting to be explored. Our brightest discoveries are not yet known. Our most thrilling stories are not yet told. Our grandest journeys are not yet made. The American Age, the American Epic, the American Adventure, has only just begun!

Our spirit is still young; the sun is still rising; God’s grace is still shining; and my fellow Americans, the best is yet to come!

Thank you. God Bless You. God Bless America."

I have no illusions that Trump wrote these words but whoever did was really on his or her game.  I remember being uplifted.  I remember thinking that maybe we really could get beyond our divisions.  I hoped that his words would be matched by his actions.  But alas, it was not to be.  We all know what happened at the election and the shameful and sordid actions of his followers on Jan 6.  I've said in this blog many times that I would have voted guilty at his impeachment trial.  It seemed pretty clear to me.  

Now we are a year later and things seem worse.  My view is that the current crowd in power are a disaster.  They are a disaster in every facet of governing.  The other side doesn't see it that way, but that just shows how deep our divisions are.  I couldn't ever conceive of supporting Trump after his actions after the election because I thought he was genuinely deranged.  And I fervently hope that a more mainline Republican can overcome the Trump phenomenon that continues.  But as time goes on I'm not so sure.  

So I find myself in a quandary.  Would I ever support him again?  Against the current crowd I would have no choice.  I hope that as the next few years unfold, someone on the right will emerge who can stand up to the dangerous looney right and seize the party to run a solid campaign that will appeal to the vast majority of moderates like me in the middle.  And also that someone on the left will emerge who can stand up to the dangerous radical left and seize the party to run a solid campaign that will have wider appeal.  But I'm not optimistic.  

The thing fighting against that is the inviolate truth that money rules politics.  I saw a fascinating article on Axios this morning on the making of the modern Republican.  You can read it here.  This is the tale of money in the Republican world but it's the same on the other side.  It's discouraging and disappointing but not surprising.  The average voter can't do a thing about it and is increasingly just along for the ride.  

I'm an optimist in most things but increasingly I'm pessimistic about the state of our national political life and the worsening discourse amongst our citizens.  To be an optimist, you have to see a potential positive way ahead.  But I don't know what that is.