We're a few days into one of the biggest debacles in American diplomatic and military history. And yes, I was alive during the fall of Saigon. What has happened over the course of the last few weeks in Afghanistan and what will happen in the coming weeks is almost inconceivable. I wrote the baseline story yesterday and you can read it here. Simply put, the decision to leave was made by civilian authority and so it was incumbent on the U.S. government to execute orders. This was an operation that should logically have been handled by Dept of State and Dept of Defense with most likely cooperation from various other agencies. Clearly...clearly they have failed in an epic manner. Or I should say leadership failed in an epic manner. As is usually the case the boots on the ground have responded heroically. We have all seen it unfold on our TV screens over the last few days. That there was no discernible plan, that we were slow to implement whatever contingency plans were put in place (assuming that there were such plans), that the circumstances on the ground have completely spun out of control is disastrous and unacceptable.
The operations on the ground will unfold in the coming days. Given the start, the execution is likely to be uneven, dangerous, filled with uncertainties and result in a fair amount of casualties. I've seen it reported that there are between 5,000 and 10,000 Americans trapped in Kabul trying to get out and between 20,000 and up to as many as 40,000 Afghans trying to escape what is likely a death sentence if they stay in the country. Getting to those people will require some heavy lifting. It will likely be borne by our Special Ops folks and I wish them Godspeed...because they are going to need it.
So as we watch from the sidelines the inevitable question arises about accountability. Who do we hold accountable for this disaster? Who will hold themselves accountable? Who will look in the mirror and decide that the honorable thing to do is to resign? And if they don't, who will Biden fire? All good questions but I fear with this crowd the answer will be none of the above. They will hunker down, claim to be part of the solution and hope for the best.
I think Biden is responsible for this disaster and should resign. Of course, he won't. As we saw in his speech yesterday he doesn't even understand the nature of the disaster. So his reckoning will come at the ballot box, but everyone knows he won't (can't?) run again. So he will skate. Who are the others who should go?
If I were drawing up a list I'd say the National Security Advisor, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (the President's principle military advisor), and the Commander of the Central Command. I've heard others say that the head of each service should resign. But I don't think so. Those guys are man, train and equip guys. They don't have execution responsibility. But the Commander of Central Command is the Unified Commander in charge of Afghanistan. I also think that the our Ambassador to Afghanistan and the senior military commander on the ground in country should go. So that's my list. Harsh? Maybe. And there are probably other people in lesser known positions that should be held accountable.
But this is the list of leaders who should be leading. They should be accountable. True leaders lead from the front. They are the first on the field of battle and the last to leave. Anything less is unacceptable and results in...well, it results in disaster!
The recent events leading up to the debacle that is unfolding in Afghanistan has stirred up the blog juices in me. In addition to being a catastrophe of epic proportions, it's a ripe field for comment. So why not?
You've all seen the images. Taliban thugs with their ragtag outfits and various weaponry taking over the country. Their assurances that everything will be okay and they just want to unify the country around an "Islamic caliphate". That they will impose sharia law and everything will be alright. Women and girls won't be threatened and will able to follow their dreams. Of course, it's all a load of crap. They will create a barbaric, 7th century environment that will oppress, imprison and kill anyone who gets in their way. Women and girls will be enslaved, oppressed, and set back to an age that no American can imagine. I guess you've got to hand it to them...they are very patient. They've endured 20 years of war since 9/11 and have reemerged quickly to exert their dominance over the country. The Afghanistan that the world has known until now will cease to exist.
In watching the images of the people dealing with this calamity, I couldn't help but wonder about the incompetence in our government that has led to this day. Like so many, I had really stopped thinking much about Afghanistan. Although we've been "at war" there for 20 years, it has moved off the front pages. I think that's because coalition forces seemed to come to some sort of equilibrium. The U.S. had wound down our presence on the ground to about 2500 active combat troops. There were coalition forces operating with us but I don't know how many. Our soldiers in the field were working the the Afghan Army and they were doing the heavy lifting. With the training, support, and backing of the coalition forces, including ours, they were keeping the Taliban at bay. Of course, this couldn't have been done without the strong air support out of Bagram air base and other locations in the region. But it seems to me that what the military had designed was working. There hasn't been a U.S. casualty since Feb, 2020. There isn't a big air threat so our forces operated with impunity in the air. But what was the end game? If I thought about it at all, that was what I thought about. Where was this leading except to protect a large segment of the population, prop up the admittedly corrupt government, and stick a stick in the eye of the Taliban at every opportunity? How long could we do it? Why would we do it?
There is little doubt in anyone's mind who follows this stuff, that we (the U.S.) has gooned up this operation from the beginning. GWB rightly went after Al Queda in Afghanistan after 9/11. Osama Bin Laden was identified as the mastermind of 9/11 and we went after him. If you read Gen Mattis' book, "Chaos" you'll find out that Mattis could have gotten him. But the bureaucrats for whatever reason wouldn't let that happen. And then Bush got distracted by Iraq. He made the fateful and terrible decision to go to Iraq. It was one of the worst military and diplomatic decisions that this country has ever made. That clusterfuck is well documented and I won't get into how bad that was. But it caused us to turn down the heat in Afghanistan. And they fiddle around for 7 years with not much to show for it. And then Obama comes in with determination to end it. But he doesn't have a clue and doesn't really care. He was all over the map by increasing troop strength, reducing troop strength, changing strategies on the fly, setting a time line for troop removal (extremely bad move!), and generally leaving the status quo in place for 8 years. Trump comes in determined to bring the troops home but fiddles for 3 years until he sees the end of his Presidency looming. Then, being the guy with the biggest ego in the room, decides he can strike a deal with the Taliban. Terrible move. But he does it and sets May 1, 2021 as our date that we'd be out. He knew, they knew, everyone knew, that was bullshit. But like a lot of things, he didn't care. He only cared about his image.
And then Biden gets elected. Biden is the guy that Secretary of Defense Bob Gates said has "been wrong on every national security issue he's worked on in his career in the Senate". And not too many people refute that. He is determined to end our presence in Afghanistan come hell or high water. So he sets the wheels in motion. Except, I'm not sure anyone believed him. If they did, there would have been an executable plan in place. Biden wasn't directly responsible for the chaos...but he caused it. His national security apparatus clearly dropped the ball. Big time.
So when things start to go down sideways (that's a military term!) he does what all professional politicians do. He starts the blame game. Of course, the first target is Trump. Trump handed him a bad deal and he's just trying to deal with it. Of course, he rescinded, cancelled or otherwise ignored about 99% of the things Trump had put in place, but now he's telling us he has to abide by the Trump fiasco of a deal. Everyone knows that's bullshit. Then he says that he and his advisors didn't think the Afghanistan Army would fold so easily. Really? After he removed all air cover and closed Bagram? Did he think they were going to take on bloodthirsty hoodlums with no concern with whether they live or die and have formidable weapons? Were they going to get into the hand to hand combat game? It was never gonna happen. So they fled. No surprise.
When thinking about our presence in Afghanistan I can't help but think of the other places around the world where the U.S. is engaged diplomatically and militarily. How about Korea? Should we have stayed at the end of the war? Should we be helping to protect the population and train their military? What would it look like if we didn't? If we hadn't established a presence, there would clearly be no S. Korea and their ensuing economic juggernaut that fuels all of Asia. But what if we left today? I don't know but I suspect that that neighborhood would grow a lot more dangerous very fast. And the guy up North has nuclear weapons! Should we still have a large presence in Japan? Back at the end of WWII we were the sole governing authority. What would that country have become without us? Difficult to know with certainty, but I be they wouldn't be the economic success that they are. So should we leave. Talk to a few Japanese in the know about the threat from China and you'll become convinced that our presence has way more positives than negatives. How about Eastern Europe and specifically Berlin. Should we have cut and run? Just let the Communist bastards have it? What would Europe look like? I suspect we'd have seen a Communist state all the way to the Atlantic. How about Israel? Did you know that we have a presence there? We help keep the peace and ensure that a balance is maintained so that Israel isn't swallowed up by her neighbors who have no love for them. There are tons of other places around the globe that we maintain some sore of presence to help preserve peace, ensure our interests are protected, and be there representing our country. What about our Navy. In today's global situation, our Navy is more diplomat than warrior a large percentage of the time. We show the flag, we ensure that the populace of both friendly and not so friendly nations know we're there. It can be a big comfort and a big deterrent.
The Middle East is a giant quagmire that will remain so for as long as most of us live and probably long after. Not many Americans understand it. Most don't know the difference between a Shia Muslim and a Sunni Muslim any more than they know the difference between Saturn and Mars. And those two groups hate each other passionately. We cannot just disengage. And it seemed to me that the small troop presence combined with air power and augmented by the Afghanistan Army was working and could remain in place for a lot of good reasons for a long time. But once again...what is the end game? Clearly democracy is a non-starter in the Middle East. Won't work. The best solution is a bad ass benevolent dictator. Think Jordan. Find someone who can replicate King Hussain and that would be a start. But our population would probably hate that and rebel against any political leader who tried to press it. So I don't know. Maybe leaving it is right...but the risks are large.
I listened to Biden today and I really think he just doesn't get it. The majority of Americans would be okay with bringing the troops home. Many people like me believe we should remain engaged for a lot of good reasons, but if our civilian leaders say no, then so be it. The outrage is not about that. But the fiasco that has emerged as a result of terrible planning and execution is unacceptable. Putting our people in harms way for an evacuation is unacceptable. We know what we need to do and the operations over the next several weeks will be extremely dangerous to our people, not to mention the population of Afghanistan. It is going to take a lot of troops and a lot of Spec Ops forces to get the innocent out safely. People will die. A lot of people will die. The immediate disaster will be bad enough. Women and girls will be subjected to unspeakable savagery. Lives built over the last 20 years will be destroyed. Hopes and dreams will be dashed. And Afghanistan will once again become a refuge for the worst of the worst bad guys in the world. Afghanistan will be their refuge, their training ground, and their base of operations. And they will come for us. When that is and how it will be is unknown. But they will come.
