Cuba

It sure has been interesting the last few days after Obama made his speech regarding normalizing relations with Cuba.  He has taken some grief from both sides of the political spectrum objecting to the United States moving to recognize and normalize our stance with Cuba.

You all know the history.   Fidel Castro overthrew Batista in the '50s and it's been a repressive, dangerous, Communist dictatorship ever since.  When Castro allowed the Soviets to station and aim missiles our way in the early '60s, the world was on the brink of war.  And that would've been nuclear war.  In our hemisphere.  Pretty scary.  And ever since that disaster was averted, we broke diplomatic ties and imposed an economic embargo on the island.  I haven't been there but judging by photos and people who have been, the country is still living in the '60s.  It is repressed economically and the people live a desperately difficult life.  There is no freedom, there are threats from the secret police, the people aren't allowed to leave, currency importation is limited, tourism is restricted, etc, etc, etc.  

So now Obama has declared that enough is enough and he is opening things up.  He wants to open up trade and tourism, he wants to open an Embassy, he wants to bring Cuba into the family of nations.  Of course, economic sanctions are controlled by Congress so there will likely be some severe pushback to his plans.

The thing is, I'm sort of conflicted on this issue.  I mean, we have normalized relations with a lot of pretty bad governments around the world.  We trade with them, we have agreements, we have tourism, we benefit and they benefit.  We've seen instances where the people are given economic freedom to some degree and real levels of freedom can follow.  See Vietnam.  See China to some extent.  But Cuba is sort of a special case.  After 50 years, it's difficult to imagine the status quo of the embargo being lifted.  Plus the Cuban government are pros at repression.  They have kept their heel on their people for 60 years.  But I'd be okay with developing a strategy that would lead to these kinds of reforms.

But I don't think my problem rises from the logic of trying to establish some sort of normalcy with Cuba.  It really arises from my distrust of Obama.  I simply don't think he can be trusted.  To me this whole thing is another example of him arrogantly exerting his executive power and I can't help but think there is an underlying political motive in this.  He is way too naive to understand the international ramifications of this move and the timing makes no sense from a strategic perspective.  Just when the price of oil is falling like a rock which is resulting in the governments of Russia and Venezuela (two of Cuba's main financial supporters) going in the tank, he chooses to provide Cuba with the financial benefits that this move will include.  He says he is doing this to help the Cuban people, but clearly the  government will be the only ones to benefit.  Doing this now removes any leverage we have as the Castro brothers (who are in their 80s) move closer to death.  When they die, we could've tried to reach out to moderate forces in the government and affect change.  But this removes that option.

Another perplexing thing (or maybe it's not) is thumbing his nose at Congress and getting way out in front of them on this.  There was obviously no consultation with key Congressional leaders who would have a big dog in this fight.  He is in effect saying, "f**k you, I do what I want".  So he has made a political calculation that he can gain points from this move.  He also is in his last two years, just got his ass kicked in an election, and probably doesn't care what they think.  I also am surprised he didn't reach out to the Cuban community in the U.S. to gain some support or at least to let them know so they weren't blindsided.  But none of that appears to have happened.  

It's also maddening that he made this move and didn't really get anything in return.  I get the spy trade.  We did a 2 for 3 trade.  I'm okay with that.  I'm sure there is some logic there.  But nothing else.  No assurance that they would take any steps to offer some level of freedom to their people.  No loosening of the repression of homosexuals, no stopping of real torture (not waterboarding) in their prisons, no releasing of political prisoners, no economic reforms, nothing.  Nada.  Zilch.  It is just beyond belief.  

So now he'll go off to his mansion in Hawaii for 17 days and let this boil.  It's another example of an ill-timed, uncoordinated, naive, reactionary foreign policy.  It's another example of his reckless misunderstanding of the way the world works.  It's sadly another example of the deep hole he is digging for us in our relations with the rest of the world.  It is going to take time, expertise, and a big shovel to dig out.
                                                                                                                                                                

Another twist (12/22):  A friend has opined that this could potentially be a slick way to close Gitmo.  Obama could have made a deal with Castro.  Part of our admission of our renouncing of our colonial ways.  I hope that it's not true.  But with this guy...you never know.