Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Reasons Trump Won't Win (as of today)

As much as so many are hoping against hope that the corrupt and criminal Hillary won't occupy the Oval Office come January, I think the chances of that not happening are pretty dim.  As I look across the political landscape, it appears to me that there are a number of things that, at the end of the day, will be too much for Trump to overcome.

Of course, the first thing is how he came out of the gate.  He was a bombastic and arrogant businessman who was fed up and had this idea to run for President.  He obviously said some things that a professional politician wouldn't say.  Oh, many of the things were what many Americans were thinking, but he said them directly and without political nuance that people are used to.  That turned a segment of the population off.  Big time.  Bigger than he expected (I think).  But he won.  And continued to win.  So he continued the message and did what worked.  That was then.  That worked in the Primaries.  It doesn't translate very well to the general.  And there are a lot of people who won't forget, won't forgive, won't see any sort of change.  Even though he is moderating his message, as any thinking person realizes he would eventually do, it is likely too little too late.

The second thing is that no matter how much he moderates, his message will never get out.  As we've all seen and I've pointed out, the media is in Hillary's camp hook, line and sinker.  They are actively working against him.  Shameful, but true.

There is also the matter of money and organization.  Hillary and the Democratic machine are ahead in that area.  Way ahead.  The Trump organization isn't close to being as extensive or as efficient as the Hillary organization.  And she is raising a ton more money.  And she's getting it from two places.  The first is Wall Street.  She is in their pocket.  The second is Hollywood.  She had a fundraiser today in Hollywood that was $33,400 a head.  Seriously.  You can read about it here.   It's pretty slimy.  It's just the thing the press will decry.  But for her, they'll ignore it.

Then there is the issue of the Electoral College.  The road for Trump is narrow.  Very narrow.  Dana Perino, who knows a thing or two about Presidential elections has a good analysis that you can read here.  There is a lot of other analysis out there if you look for it.  Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia is a guy to pay attention to.  But bottom line is that most of the election geeks don't see a way for Trump to navigate the Electoral College.

Pretty grim, huh?  Well, it is.  But it can change.  As many have said, this is a year unlike any other.  Perhaps the media will wake up and start holding Hillary accountable.  Perhaps the debates will turn the tide.  Perhaps Trump's message (the moderated one) will get through.  Perhaps people will start to see how bad it would be for Hillary to win.  Perhaps Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, will get enough votes to throw the election to the House.  Perhaps.  Perhaps.  Perhaps.  Things will change...I'm just not sure how much and if it will be enough.  No one does.
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