A Disaster 20 Years in the Making

The recent events leading up to the debacle that is unfolding in Afghanistan has stirred up the blog juices in me.  In addition to being a catastrophe of epic proportions, it's a ripe field for comment.  So why not?

You've all seen the images.  Taliban thugs with their ragtag outfits and various weaponry taking over the country.  Their assurances that everything will be okay and they just want to unify the country around an "Islamic caliphate".  That they will impose sharia law and everything will be alright.  Women and girls won't be threatened and will able to follow their dreams.  Of course, it's all a load of crap.  They will create a barbaric, 7th century environment that will oppress, imprison and kill anyone who gets in their way.  Women and girls will be enslaved, oppressed, and set back to an age that no American can imagine. I guess you've got to hand it to them...they are very patient.  They've endured 20 years of war since 9/11 and have reemerged quickly to exert their dominance over the country.  The Afghanistan that the world has known until now will cease to exist.  

In watching the images of the people dealing with this calamity, I couldn't help but wonder about the incompetence in our government that has led to this day.  Like so many, I had really stopped thinking much about Afghanistan.  Although we've been "at war" there for 20 years, it has moved off the front pages.  I think that's because coalition forces seemed to come to some sort of equilibrium.  The U.S. had wound down our presence on the ground to about 2500 active combat troops.  There were coalition forces operating with us but I don't know how many.  Our soldiers in the field were working the the Afghan Army and they were doing the heavy lifting.  With the training, support, and backing of the coalition forces, including ours, they were keeping the Taliban at bay.  Of course, this couldn't have been done without the strong air support out of Bagram air base and other locations in the region.  But it seems to me that what the military had designed was working.  There hasn't been a U.S. casualty since Feb, 2020.  There isn't a big air threat so our forces operated with impunity in the air.  But what was the end game?  If I thought about it at all, that was what I thought about.  Where was this leading except to protect a large segment of the population, prop up the admittedly corrupt government, and stick a stick in the eye of the Taliban at every opportunity?  How long could we do it?  Why would we do it?

There is little doubt in anyone's mind who follows this stuff, that we (the U.S.) has gooned up this operation from the beginning.  GWB rightly went after Al Queda in Afghanistan after 9/11.  Osama Bin Laden was identified as the mastermind of 9/11 and we went after him.  If you read Gen Mattis' book, "Chaos" you'll find out that Mattis could have gotten him.  But the bureaucrats for whatever reason wouldn't let that happen.  And then Bush got distracted by Iraq.  He made the fateful and terrible decision to go to Iraq.  It was one of the worst military and diplomatic decisions that this country has ever made.  That clusterfuck is well documented and I won't get into how bad that was.  But it caused us to turn down the heat in Afghanistan.  And they fiddle around for 7 years with not much to show for it.  And then Obama comes in with determination to end it.  But he doesn't have a clue and doesn't really care.  He was all over the map by increasing troop strength, reducing troop strength, changing strategies on the fly, setting a time line for troop removal (extremely bad move!), and generally leaving the status quo in place for 8 years.  Trump comes in determined to bring the troops home but fiddles for 3 years until he sees the end of his Presidency looming.  Then, being the guy with the biggest ego in the room, decides he can strike a deal with the Taliban.  Terrible move.  But he does it and sets May 1, 2021 as our date that we'd be out.  He knew, they knew, everyone knew, that was bullshit.  But like a lot of things, he didn't care.  He only cared about his image.  

And then Biden gets elected.  Biden is the guy that Secretary of Defense Bob Gates said has "been wrong on every national security issue he's worked on in his career in the Senate".  And not too many people refute that.  He is determined to end our presence in Afghanistan come hell or high water.  So he sets the wheels in motion.  Except, I'm not sure anyone believed him. If they did, there would have been an executable plan in place.  Biden wasn't directly responsible for the chaos...but he caused it.  His national security apparatus clearly dropped the ball.  Big time.  

So when things start to go down sideways (that's a military term!) he does what all professional politicians do.  He starts the blame game.  Of course, the first target is Trump.  Trump handed him a bad deal and he's just trying to deal with it.  Of course, he rescinded, cancelled or otherwise ignored about 99% of the things Trump had put in place, but now he's telling us he has to abide by the Trump fiasco of a deal.  Everyone knows that's bullshit.  Then he says that he and his advisors didn't think the Afghanistan Army would fold so easily.  Really?  After he removed all air cover and closed Bagram?  Did he think they were going to take on bloodthirsty hoodlums with no concern with whether they live or die and have formidable weapons?  Were they going to get into the hand to hand combat game?  It was never gonna happen.  So they fled.  No surprise.  

When thinking about our presence in Afghanistan I can't help but think of the other places around the world where the U.S. is engaged diplomatically and militarily.  How about Korea?  Should we have stayed at the end of the war?  Should we be helping to protect the population and train their military?  What would it look like if we didn't?  If we hadn't established a presence, there would clearly be no S. Korea and their ensuing economic juggernaut that fuels all of Asia.  But what if we left today?  I don't know but I suspect that that neighborhood would grow a lot more dangerous very fast.  And the guy up North has nuclear weapons!  Should we still have a large presence in Japan?  Back at the end of WWII we were the sole governing authority.  What would that country have become without us?  Difficult to know with certainty, but I be they wouldn't be the economic success that they are.  So should we leave.  Talk to a few Japanese in the know about the threat from China and you'll become convinced that our presence has way more positives than negatives.  How about Eastern Europe and specifically Berlin.  Should we have cut and run?  Just let the Communist bastards have it?  What would Europe look like?  I suspect we'd have seen a Communist state all the way to the Atlantic.  How about Israel?  Did you know that we have a presence there?  We help keep the peace and ensure that a balance is maintained so that Israel isn't swallowed up by her neighbors who have no love for them.  There are tons of other places around the globe that we maintain some sore of presence to help preserve peace, ensure our interests are protected, and be there representing our country.  What about our Navy.  In today's global situation, our Navy is more diplomat than warrior a large percentage of the time.  We show the flag, we ensure that the populace of both friendly and not so friendly nations know we're there.  It can be a big comfort and a big deterrent.  

The Middle East is a giant quagmire that will remain so for as long as most of us live and probably long after.  Not many Americans understand it.  Most don't know the difference between a Shia Muslim and a Sunni Muslim any more than they know the difference between Saturn and Mars.  And those two groups hate each other passionately.  We cannot just disengage.  And it seemed to me that the small troop presence combined with air power and augmented by the Afghanistan Army was working and could remain in place for a lot of good reasons for a long time.  But once again...what is the end game?  Clearly democracy is a non-starter in the Middle East.  Won't work.  The best solution is a bad ass benevolent dictator.  Think Jordan.  Find someone who can replicate King Hussain and that would be a start.  But our population would probably hate that and rebel against any political leader who tried to press it.  So I don't know.  Maybe leaving it is right...but the risks are large.

I listened to Biden today and I really think he just doesn't get it.  The majority of Americans would be okay with bringing the troops home.  Many people like me believe we should remain engaged for a lot of good reasons, but if our civilian leaders say no, then so be it.  The outrage is not about that.  But the fiasco that has emerged as a result of terrible planning and execution is unacceptable.   Putting our people in harms way for an evacuation is unacceptable.  We know what we need to do and the operations over the next several weeks will be extremely dangerous to our people, not to mention the population of Afghanistan.  It is going to take a lot of troops and a lot of Spec Ops forces to get the innocent out safely.   People will die.  A lot of people will die.  The immediate disaster will be bad enough.  Women and girls will be subjected to unspeakable savagery.  Lives built over the last 20 years will be destroyed.  Hopes and dreams will be dashed.  And Afghanistan will once again become a refuge for the worst of the worst bad guys in the world.  Afghanistan will be their refuge, their training ground, and their base of operations.  And they will come for us.  When that is and how it will be is unknown.  But they will come.  

Happy Birthday America!

If you're an American, it's likely that you recognize the 4th of July as the country's birthday.  The day that the Declaration of Independence was adopted.  Specifically, the Second Continental Congress unanimously adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing the colonies separation from Great Britain.  And the rest, as they say, is history.

One of the things about the Revolutionary War that is generally accepted by historians is that it was a miserable and squalid affair.  The Colonials were out manned, out gunned, lived in terrible conditions, suffered horrendous casualties, and had no business taking on the most powerful army in the world.  And yet they did.  And they kept going, sometimes in the face of insurmountable odds.  That this band of colonialist-soldiers kept going in the their effort to pursue freedom was really not something that the world has ever seen.  It took every bit of will, forbearance, wisdom, and faith in the cause they were championing for them to keep going.  That cause was an idea...the idea of freedom.  And it was never a sure thing.  In some of the darkest days, the temptation to give up was I'm sure overwhelming.  But dedication to the cause coupled with what was some inspired leadership won out.  And we are all better for it.  

When it was over they all went home and went about the business of creating and uplifting a country.  There was no rounding up those on the other side and standing them before a firing squad.  Those who sought citizenship were offered it.  Those who disagreed on details continued to disagree.  John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, two early heroes of country, carried on a terrible feud for decades.  Their philosophies of governing couldn't have been more different.  But each of them and their supporters continued to fight rhetorically for what they believed.  They fought at the ballot box and in the newspapers...not on a field of battle or in the streets.  And there was a recognition that differing beliefs did not mean differing dedication to the country.  It's interesting that as they continued their arguments and differences into the next century, at the end of their lives they started a reconciliation.  They exchanged letters and came to an understanding of sorts.  The other interesting and almost spooky thing is that they both died on July 4th, 1826, 50 years after the Revolution.  

I saw a story today someplace in the fetid world that the media has become that in interviews some young Americans are embarrassed of the country and believe we are a mean, vindictive, racist people.  How sad.  That says a lot about the state of education and the media today.  Or at least about a few people interviewed.  Now don't get me wrong.  We have and have had plenty of problems.  We've many times not lived up to our aspirations.  There are many, many problems that must be addressed.  And we still have a long way to go.  But I think of my Dad and the evolution of his world from being born in a log cabin in Alabama in 1920 and living for 86 years, into the new century.  Or myself, a child of the 50's and 60's and seeing the advances that we've achieved in all aspects of our culture, our civilization, our privileges, our openness, our specific laws designed to protect people, our recognition of the worth and dignity of every person and I marvel at where we are today.  And look at the economic, scientific, and educational achievements among so many others and it boggles the mind.   Many fellow citizens still haven't achieved the American dream, but that's not to say that many can't.  My belief is that given the will and a small amount of help, anyone can achieve their dreams.  We've seen it over and over and over.  

So enjoy our birthday.  While you're doing it think of those first patriots.  Those who had a glimmer of what we could be given the chance.  Those who were willing to give up all to achieve freedom.  Those men who could come up with this, the greatest sentence in the greatest document every created..."We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among those are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."  One of those unalienable rights as declared by the Bill of Rights is Freedom of Speech.  So complain all you want.  Take a stand to hold the government and those doing harm to our fellow citizens accountable.  Point out when the culture takes a turn in the wrong direction (in your opinion).  It is the right and responsibility of every American to voice his or her grievances.  But always, always, always remember this.  If you are an American alive in 2021, you have won the greatest prize you could ever have or ever imagine by being born in this country.   

Tear Down His Statue?

Thomas Jefferson has gotten a lot of grief lately.  Many groups are nonsensically demanding that he be erased.  He owned slaves and fathered bastard children.  He was an elitist and is not deserving of any honor or our admiration.  But then there is also this...

Thomas Jefferson

His portrait is on the $2.00 Dollar Bill.

This is amazing. There are two parts to this.

Be sure to read the 2nd part (in RED ).

Thomas Jefferson was a very remarkable man who started  learning very early in life and never stopped.

At 5, began studying under his cousin's tutor.

At 9, studied Latin, Greek and French.

At 14, studied classical literature and additional languages.

At 16, entered the College of William and Mary.

Also could write in Greek with one hand, while writing the same in Latin with the other.

At 19, studied Law for 5 years starting under George Wythe.

At 23, started his own law practice.

At 25, was elected to the Virginia House of Burgesses.

At 31, wrote the widely circulated "Summary View of the Rights of British America," and retired from his law practice.

At 32, was a delegate to the Second Continental Congress.

At 33, wrote the Declaration of Independence.

At 33, took three years to revise Virginia's legal code and wrote a Public Education bill and a statute for Religious Freedom.

At 36, was elected the second Governor of Virginia, succeeding Patrick Henry.

At 40, served in Congress for two years.

At 41, was the American minister to France and negotiated commercial treaties with European nations along with Ben Franklin and John Adams.

At 46, served as the first Secretary of State under George Washington.

At 53, served as Vice President and was elected President of the American Philosophical Society..

At 55, drafted the Kentucky Resolutions and became the active head of the Republican Party.

At 57, was elected the third president of the United States .

At 60, obtained the Louisiana Purchase, doubling the nation's size.

At 61, was elected to a second term as President.

At 65, retired to Monticello.

At 80, helped President Monroe shape the Monroe Doctrine.

At 81, almost single-handedly, created the University of Virginia and served as its' first president.

At 83, died on the 50th Anniversary of the Signing of the Declaration of Independence, along with John Adams.

Thomas Jefferson knew, because he himself studied, the previous failed attempts at government. He understood actual history, the nature of God, His laws and the nature of man. That happens to be way more than what most understand today.

Jefferson really knew his stuff...A voice from the past to lead us in the future:

John F. Kennedy held a dinner in the White House for a group of the brightest minds in the nation at that time. He made this statement:

"This is perhaps the assembly of the most intelligence ever to gather at one time in the White House, with the exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

"When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe ."  -- Thomas Jefferson

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."   -- Thomas Jefferson

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its ' own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on, would save one-half the wars of the world."   -- Thomas Jefferson

"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people, under the pretense of taking care of them."  -- Thomas Jefferson

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government   results from too much government."  --  Thomas Jefferson

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms."  -- Thomas Jefferson

"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."   -- Thomas Jefferson

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time  with the blood of patriots and tyrants."  -- Thomas Jefferson

"To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes, the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors, is sinful and tyrannical."   -- Thomas Jefferson

Pandemic Reading

I can't believe that it's been almost a year since the pandemic seriously kicked in.  In many ways it doesn't seem that long but I think it's just because most people have settled into a life that is more mundane than they are used to.  Most of us, especially at my age, have been careful in who they associate with, where they go for groceries and daily human tasks, and have restricted most travel that isn't absolutely essential.  We've actually been a bit more liberal than many of our our friends in our movements in the community, but have still felt the oppression of "hunkering down".  Of course, in our case it really isn't that bad and we have much to be thankful for.  As retirees we've got plenty of resources, a comfortable home, and friends and loved ones nearby.  But still...

One of the fallouts of the pandemic has been my reading has increased rather dramatically.  I've always been a reader and my normal custom has always been to have a book that I'm reading with one in the wings.  But now it seems normal to have one that I'm reading with about 10 in the wings.  Once I start looking I wind up finding a lot of books that interest me.  I'm not a reader that likes to stick to one distinct type of book or one genre.  Fiction or non-fiction, traditional or contemporary it doesn't really matter.  About the only thing that I don't really like very much is science fiction.  

So since I've read what seems like a ton of books, most of which I really liked in different ways, I thought I'd provide a listing in case any of you out there might be interested.  I'll also provide a short (very short in most cases because I don't want to give anything away) description or critique.  I hope that if you're a reader you'll find something that you might like.  Because for goodness sakes we have plenty of time to read!

1. I Love Capitalism by Ken Langone.  A rags to riches story by the founder of Home Depot. This is a book optimism, rags to riches and a celebration of capitalism.
2. The Coldest Winter by David Halberstam.  A no holds barred story of the Korean War.  Intense, gruesome, maddening and heartbreaking.
3. The Hate U Give by Angie Thomas.  The story of a teenage girl and her family torn between a life in the 'Hood' and an upper class neighborhood.  A raw story of race in America.
4. Educated by Tara Westover.  A memoir of a young girl's struggle for education.
5. Call Sign Chaos by Jim Mattis.  Some great stories and vignettes on leadership.
6. The Sword and the Scimitar by Raymond Ibrahim.  Fourteen centuries of war between Islam and the West.
7. Shantaram by Gregory David Roberts.  A semi-autobiography of a man who escapes from Australian prison and flees to India where he lives his life.  This book is a fascinating look at life in Bombay.
8. Sam Houston and the Alamo Avengers by Brian Kilmeade.  The story of the early days of the Texas and the defense of the Alamo.
9. Pachinko by Min Jin Lee.  An epic historical novel about a Korean family that eventually emigrates to Japan.
10. The Splendid and the Vile by Erik Larson.  A saga of Churchill, his family, and defiance during the Blitz.
11. Small Great Things by Jodi Picoult.  The story of an African American labor and delivery nurse and the racism surrounding her care of a white supremacist couple's newborn son.  This was a very powerful, eye-opening novel and highly recommended.
12. Fortitude by Congressman Dan Crenshaw.  American resilience in the era of outrage.
13. Invisible Prey by John Sandford.  One of the "prey" books.  Sandford is a prolific mystery writer and one of my favorites.  He spins an intricate and exciting story.  I've read most of his books.
14. Aria's Travelling Book Shop by Rebecca Raisen.  The story of a young woman and her mobile bookstore traveling in Europe.  A great romantic comedy.
15. The Vanishing Half by Brit Bennett.  Black twin sisters from the South run away at 16.  One winds up back in the same small town and one moves to California and passes for white.  A fascinating contrast.
16. Weenie Kleegan  and The Mayor of Olangopo by Hamlin Tallent.  Both of these books tell a good yarn about Naval Aviators on deployment.  I liked them because I knew Ham back in the day and could relate to the stories.
17. Where the Lost Wander by Amy Harmon.  My favorite of all that I've read.  The story of a wagon train heading west from St Louis.  Spellbinding.
18. The Henna Artist by Alka Joshi.  A portrait of one woman’s struggle for fulfillment in a society pivoting between the traditional and the modern.  A fascinating read.
19. 28 Summers by Elie Hilderbrand.  I will confess to reading several (maybe 10) Hilderbrand novels.  They are short, fun, emotional and a usually a great read.  She has a trilogy set on St. John Island in the Caribbean that is great.  This book turns out to be very poignant.  
20. The Last Mile by David Baldacci.  I've read most of Baldacci's books and they are all good.  He is a great mystery writer.
21. The Wedding Date by Jasmine Guillory.  This is a definite "chick book" but it is a fun read that provides definite escapism.  I liked it so much that I found her other 4 novels and read them all.  She is a really good story teller.  And not to ruin anything, but there are a lot of twists and turns but it all is alright in the end.
22. Ordinary Grace by William Kent Krueger.  This book has won all kinds of awards and it was good.  I wasn't as enthralled by it as I thought I would be.  It's about a kid in the '60s who faced tragedy as told by himself 40 years later.
23. The Last Mile by Brad Thor.  Thor tells a great spy story.  I've read all his books.  Suspenseful, lots of twists, good guys win and bad guys lose.  What could be better?
24. Raven One by Kevin Miller.  The first of three novels about Naval Aviation combat.  I read all three.  For a guy who's been there some of it is pretty far fetched but it is great escapism.  Miller keeps the characters together through three novels and it's easy to identify with them.  
25. The Evening and the Morning by Ken Follett.  This is the prequel to The Pillars of the Earth, one of the best books I've read.  It takes place around 400bc in England.  Follett is a great storyteller and this book makes you want more.
26. The Kill Chain by Christian Rose.  The subtitle of this book is "Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare".  It's all about China and it's scary.  I know enough about the subject that I paid close attention.  
27. Killing Floor by Lee Child.  This is a Jack Reacher novel.  What can I say?  I've read all the Reacher novels.  They are ridiculous but compelling.  At some point it becomes sort of fun to speculate what crazy fix he is going to find himself in only to escape.  It's sort of an American James Bond in blue jeans.  
28. Eight Hundred Grapes by Laura Dave.  If I say much I'll give it away but suffice to say this is a wonderful story that is poignant, compelling, maddening, fun and contains a lot of unexpected turns.  I didn't think I would like it but I couldn't put it down.  One of my favorites.  I just bought another book by Laura, "Hellos Sunshine" and it was terrific.  Not as good as Eight Hundred Grapes, but good.
29. True Colors by Kristin Hannah.  This is the story of three sisters whose once-solid world is broken apart by jealousy, betrayal, and the kind of passion that rarely comes along.  Kristin Hannah is one of favorite authors and I've read most of her stuff.  She has a new novel coming this year that I'm looking forward to reading.
30. American Dirt by Jeanine Cummins.  This book grabs you from the first page.  I couldn't put it down.  One of my favorites.  This novel tells the story of a woman and her child escaping murderous violence (literally) in Acapulco and ultimately winds up taking a migrant train North and then going with a Coyote across the border.  It is a heartbreaking story and caused me to rethink some of my thinking about immigration.  It was really good.
31. Squeeze Me by Carl Hiaasen.  I've read a lot of this humorists books and they are all funny and a bit ridiculous.  They offer a unique portrait of life in Florida.  A funny, brainless read.
32. A Time for Mercy by John Grisham.  A typical page turner by Grisham.  I've read most of his books.  He writes legal thrillers and they are all good.  They are full of twists and turns and the good guys usually win.  This is the continuation of a small town lawyer in Mississippi.
33. The Princes of Ireland and The Rebels of Ireland by Edward Rutherford.  A friend recommended these books and I'm glad he did.  But man, it was a long trek through pre-Christian Ireland to today.  Rutherford tells an epic tale of several families over hundreds of years and it is a magnificent story.  I really never understood the oppression of the Catholics in Ireland until I read these books.  Rutherford brings the country alive and some parts are page turners and some are arcane country and church history.  I really liked the books, but if you decide to read them, set aside some significant time.
34. Extreme Measures by Vince Flynn.  This is a Mitch Rap spy novel.  I think I've read all of them and this one was as good as the rest.  They are a bit far fetched but the story is very intricate and keeps you turning pages.  Not for the feint of heart though.  Mitch is a CIA assassin who doesn't hesitate to do what needs to be done in defense of the country. 
35. A Place Called Freedom by Ken Follett.  I've told you previously what a good storyteller Follett is and he doesn't disappoint.  This is the story of a young Scottish immigrant escaping the coal mines of Scotland and making his way to America in the 1760's.  It's a gripping, inspiring tale.
36. Waking up White by Debby Irving.  This book is easily the worst book I've ever read.  Easily.  It  is infuriating.  I know that it's very popular and oh so woke to take on the mantle of white guilt and by saying it's terrible some would brand me as a certain type...namely that of a racist.  But this book is so insulting, so full of stereotypes, so sophomoric in its examples and comparisons that if it wasn't so damaging to our culture, it'd be laughable.  I only see this book as Ms Irving seeing a crisis, banging out an infantile and simplistic explanation according to her elite musings and seeking to make a buck off the crises that we see in our culture over race.  It's shameful.  Don't waste your time or at least don't buy it...borrow it.  
37. Robert E Lee and Me by Col. Ty Sidule.  I'm only about 1/4 of the way through this but so far it's really good.  Since I'm a bit of a Civil War geek I think it's especially good.  It's the story of a retired Army Colonel and West Point Historian who grew up in Virginia who has realized that his entire upbringing was based on a lie.  That lie was the great myth of the Lost Cause.  I'll not say more but if you are interested in unvarnished truth about slavery and the nature of the Confederacy, check out this book.  And better yet, read this instead of the book immediately above.  

Here are the books I have in my iPad and are ready to read.  

1. Jesus and the Disinherited by Howard Thurman
2. Sailing True North by Admiral James Stavridus
3. Irreversible Damage by Abigail Shrier.
4. The Seekers by John Jakes
5. Anxious People by Fredrik Backman
6. Cutting for Stone by Abraham Verghese
7. Caste, The Origins of our Discontent by Isabel Wilkerson
8. Big White Ghetto by Kevin Williamson
9. Sophomores by Sean Desmond
10. London is the Best American City by Laura Dave
11. The Road by Colmac McCarthy

Everyone is different and likes different things.  Some don't like reading at all and would rather be out doing something in the real world.  And I can relate to that.  Some only like non-fiction because for whatever reason they don't see value in the stories that novels tell.  And I can't relate to that.  Because for me I can sometimes lose myself in a book and when I read a story that I become so immersed in that I don't want it to end, well that is sublime.  So if you see something that looks interesting, give it a try.  You most likely won't be disappointed.

Storming the Capitol

We've all seen countless videos and images of the thousands of people who stormed and ransacked the Capitol last week.  I wrote about the insurrection when it happened here.   This has obviously been the biggest story in a sea of big stories and has resulted in a vote to impeach President Trump and lock down the Capitol for the inauguration like we've never seen.  I think most people are just anxious for it to be over and move on.

As we dissect and evaluate what happened, there is still one thing I just can't wrap my mind around.  So say you're an ardent Trump supporter and you heed his call to come to Washington DC on Jan 6.  It doesn't matter where you're from but you make your way to the Mall for the big demonstration.  There are thousands of supporters there and they are being whipped up by various speakers culminating in the President of the United States who tells everyone to march to the Capitol and fight like hell.  Of course, you being a relatively intelligent person realize that much of the rhetoric is political posturing and made for TV, but still it's exciting.  And maybe you even have half a brain in your head and know that the certification of the election by Congress is largely ceremonial and there is no way that objecting to it by sympathetic Congressmen is going to make a difference.  And not in a million, billion years is Vice President Pence going to somehow singlehandedly overturn the election.  It's never going to happen.  It's over.  But like I said, it's an exciting and heady environment.  So off you go with the crowd.  And you probably think you're gonna wind up at the Capitol and there maybe will be more speeches and a lot of milling around but that you will have been part of history and exercised your freedom of speech.  

But when you arrive you realize it's way more serious than you expected.  The rhetoric is turning fowl.  The people in the crowd look like people who could take a lot more serious action than you expected.  And as you're in the crowd it starts to surge forward.  Then you realize that the police are giving way because they aren't authorized to use deadly force.  And you get swept along with the crowd and all of a sudden you're on the steps climbing toward the door.  

So here's my question.  How in the world do you go through that door?  It's the door to the U.S. Capitol and you've realized that if you stay with that crowd nothing good will come from it.  In what world do you think taking over the U.S Capitol is a legitimate activity?  I get that there are a lot of violent, stupid people who occupy the far right and the far left in this country and it's not surprising that some of those knuckleheads would lower themselves to such despicable actions, but how does the normal political activist or political junky who simply attended a rally for the President advance to the point that they think violently entering the U.S. Capitol is okay.  I just can't wrap my mind around that.  

But I will say this, I hope they find you and I hope they hold you accountable.  And I'm not talking about a slap on the wrist or a fine.  I'm talking about making little rocks out of big rocks.  Because you are a traitor and an idiot.

The Trump Presidency

There will probably be more articles, essays, speeches, panels and debates than we can count that will assess the Trump presidency.  They will go on and on and on.  Depending on who is doing the talking or writing, the assessments will take on dramatically different tones.  And ground truth will depend on where you sit.  You will either believe the proposition being put forth or you won't.  

I've already seen several attempts at describing the past four years.  Most are superficial and of course probably premature because time needs to go by to make assessments.  That is in most cases.  In Trump's case, there is plenty to dissect.

I saw an article in National Review today that caught my eye.  I generally like the author's take on things and I think even as the ink isn't dry on the Trump Presidency, he has done a good job of laying out the goods and bads.  At least I think he has done a good job.  You can read the article, "A Final Assessment of the Trump Presidency, and the Path Forward" here.  It's a long read and the lead in to the meat of the article is a bit tedious, but like I said, I think he captures it pretty well.  

I particularly like the three critiques of Trump's Presidency..."the incalculable damage his character and behavior has caused, the precedent of what he has done in fiscal management, and the dysfunctional management of personnel".  Many will not agree but I think it's pretty spot on.  

Truth

 What is truth?  When you think of truth do you think of circumstances that lead to truth?  Are you one of those folks who talk about "your truth"?  There is an increasing tendency in our society to water down truth or at least to apply qualifiers to truth.  The loss of objective truth is one of many reasons that there is so much angst and conflict in society today.  If we can't even agree on what is objective truth, it's pretty difficult to agree on causes, processes, and outcomes of anything we do.  

A good friend and retired Priest who I've quoted several times in this blog had a great reflection on the mayhem at the Capitol on Wednesday.  One section particularly struck me and is something I've been concerned about for some time.  Objective truth.  Why have we lost it?  Or are losing it?  Here are his words:

"..,the political chaos in our country is a symptom of our abandonment to objective truth. President Trump’s lies reflect a postmodern culture in which there is no longer any objective truth, only the “truth” that I want to hear, or agree with, or accept. Truth is only a perspective from an individual and not an objective reality. It is truth as I see it, that suits my agenda, is in my self-interest, that furthers my policies and reflects my will to power. The Nazis of old and the Chinese Communists today have practiced this kind of truth. George Orwell warned against it in his books 1984 and Animal Farm, and even C.S. Lewis wrote a powerful book on the subject titled The Abolition of Man.

 

America today is a nation without truth, only “truths” for different segments of the population. If you are a liberal, you tune into MSNBC or CNN. If you are a conservative, there is Fox News or Newsmax. You read papers or go to web sites that appeal to your preferences and prejudices, never hearing or listening to any other viewpoints. This is a frightening phenomenon in our country, and it is preventing intelligent discussion and rational debate because each side is absolutely convinced they have the whole truth and their opponents are completely wrong – and not only wrong but evil. No dialogue is possible. There is no conversation, no willingness to listen and understand the perspectives of the other. No wonder there is violence and political heavy-handedness in America. We can’t even sit at the same table and talk to one another with mutual respect as citizens of one great country. "

 That pretty much sums up my views.  And the concern is how do we get it back.  One of the many websites I've been watching is Axios.  They are relatively new but are popular with the younger crowd who want quick stories that cut to the chase.  There is one this morning that particularly resonated called "Insurrection and misinformation tears the country into Three Americas".  The pull quote that struck me is here: 

"Now, more than ever, is the time to read and reflect: Our nation is rethinking politics, free speech, the definition of truth and the price of lies. This moment — and our decisions — will be studied by our kid's grandkids."

"The definition of truth".  Why does truth need to be defined?  Is it because we have moved to a place where everyone has their own truth?  If truth were objective, there wouldn't need to be a definition.  This little blog isn't going to change any of that.  But it's worth thinking about next time you hear someone say "their truth".  Is it your truth?  Is it the truth?  Good questions to be thinking about.

Along with truth and maybe just as important is trust.  Who do you trust do provide you with truth?   Do you suspect it's their truth and not the truth?  Do you seek multiple sources to figure out truth for yourself?  Most media has bias.  That's just a fact.  And it's nothing new.  I saw a quote the other day from George Washington from a letter he wrote in 1797 to James McHenry, the 3rd Secretary of War.  President Washington wrote, "We get so many details from the Gazettes (media), and of such different complexions, that is is impossible to know what credence to give to any of them".  So figuring out truth from media has always been a difficult task.  Add to this that these days many, many people get their information from non-traditional sources.  Blogs, websites, newsletters, podcasts, and many other forms of information have proliferated across the net.  There. is usually little control and they can say anything they want.  In the last week I've heard wild conspiracy theories from people I would otherwise deem level headed.  Our current strife has served to feed these theories.  So be careful.  Don't be the person who passes on bogus information that doesn't pass the logic test.

There is an increasing potential for the population to break into factions that only believe what they are fed.  When this happens it is only bad for the Republicans.  With their disappointment with Trump since the election, I think more and more people will turn away from him.  But there are a significant number of rabid zealots who believe in him as the renegade outsider who wanted and wants to "drain the swamp".  When you add in the far right white supremacists, you have a recipe for recalcitrance and even violence.   However, his actions and rhetoric along with disgust of the actions and beliefs of some of the people still in the Trump camp are increasingly alienating to a large number of Republicans.  So the next few years will be a critical and defining time for the Republicans.  And I think if there is a fracturing of the party that results in two (or more) smaller parties, then Conservatism is dead.  Or maybe not dead, but certainly on life support.  If you're a conservative Republican, which way will you go?

Insurection

There is no other word for it.  Unless you're totally checked out you know about the assault  by Trump supporters on our Capitol building today.  It was egregious, disappointing, outrageous, and shocking.  I really have never even contemplated something like this happening in the U.S.A.  As others have said, this is the stuff of banana republics.  The last time this happened was 1814 and it was the English doing it, not fellow Americans.  There is no excuse for it and those who were involved and can be identified should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.  

If you've read at all you know that I've been one of those peoplefor the last four years who held his nose and supported Trump.  He is all the things we know he is but his policies have been more to my way of liking than the other side.  In fact, in my view the other side has the potential for some really dangerous and damaging actions.  If I'm being honest, part of my support was rooted in the fact that the other side went to such alarming and sometimes illegal lengths to destroy him.  His stamina and resilience was something to behold.  But after his election loss and his irrational and obnoxious behavior, I've been more and more disturbed.  Time after time, incident at incident, in courtroom after courtroom, in state legislature after state legislature, he has been turned back.  The claim of massive election fraud was dismissed time after time after time.  I don't think there is anyone who doesn't agree that there were some incidents and that the States have a lot of work to do to shore up their election systems.  However, was there enough to turn the election?  Clearly no.  But today ripped it for me.  First he put all his marbles in the barrel of intimidating the VP to single-handedly overturning the election via the process in Congress today.  That was never gonna happen.  And then during a speech to thousands and thousands of rabid supporters on the Capitol Mall this morning he whipped them into a frenzy and encouraged them to go to the Capitol to protest.  And the rest is history.  It was the most irresponsible and despicable thing I've ever seen a President do.  Ever.  

After the dust has settled a lot of people are piping up with what aboutisms.  What about the BLM and Antifa terrorists who looted and rioted and destroyed whole sections of cities?   I'll say what I've said.  Those incidents were terrible.  Like at the Capitol today, those people should be identified and charged.  But here's the deal.  The Antifa crowd is just a bunch of anarchist assholes.  They should be rooted out and destroyed.  The BLM people come from all walks of life and are protesting what they perceive as long term injustice and specific incidents.  Their tactics are horrendous and they should be held accountable for the destruction they caused.  But they weren't attacking me.  The people at the Capitol today were attacking me...and you. 

When I was at National War College, I took a course called Congress, the Media and the Military.  It proved to be a fascinating course conducted mainly at Capitol Hill.  But I'll never forget the first day.  The professor, a man who had worked almost every consequential job on the Hill including Chief of Staff to a powerful Senator, walked to the window and pulled back the shades.  There loomed the Capitol Building.  He said, "That building is the most important building in the world.  It is a beacon of freedom to the world and a symbol of the rule of law.  And you're getting a chance to study it up close and personal."  I've spent the better part of my life wearing the nation's uniform sworn to uphold the Constitution, against all enemies, foreign and domestic.  I never really thought about the domestic part.  But I thought of it today.  The attack on the Capitol and our Constitutional processes is an attack on all of us.  They should hang their heads in shame.   

I'm heartened that Congress returned to work tonight and will proceed with the process.  It provides reassurances that they will not let this attack thwart their duty.  The mob did not win.   This grand experiment called America will continue.  For now.  We're heading for some rough waters with the new administration, but as I have for every new administration I will offer my support until they lose it.  It may not take long.

I posted over on FB that "Today we may be seeing the demise of the Republican Party".  Some have called me out and queried me on that.  Here's my thinking.   As the incumbent President, Trump is clearly the leader of the Republican Party.  After is actions in the last few weeks and especially today, I think a significant number of people will turn away.  I know I will.  How can you not?  So what does that leave us with.  There are a lot of talented people in the party, but the power plays that will surely emerge will be crucial.  I believe that if Trump tries to hold power, the Party is done for in national elections. That would lead to fracturing and splitting into segments with dramatically reduced power.   Or there may be a strong, dynamic leader (there are plenty of them) who take the reins and the future turns brighter.  Or it may be something in between.  Only time will tell.  

A good friend and fellow Rotarian posted his thoughts over on FB (as so many have) and I think he is spot on in his analysis.  I stand with these remarks!

If you attempt to illegally access our Capitol, White House, or Supreme Court, you are making an unequivocal statement that you do not respect the institutions of our country.

If you "protest" in a way that puts the lives of our law enforcement at risk, you cannot claim to support law enforcement.

If you resort to violence in an effort to interrupt the electoral process provided in America's Constitution, you are committing treason. (18 U.S.C. sec. 2381)

It's Not Rocket Science

Can you believe this inept and embarrassing rollout of vaccinations?  I mean, in what universe are we not going 7/24, balls to the wall to get as many people vaccinated as possible? There are supposedly 20 million doses ready with more coming and only around 3 million have been vaccinated.  Give me a break!  This is an epic failure of the federal government.  Epic.  Why on earth isn't there a federal standard and a federal plan?  To leave this to the states invites chaos.  I normally will default to planning at the lowest level but the current scheme isn't cutting it.  Each state choses how they are going to do it, what the priorities are, and what the urgency is.  No...just no.  This the Katrina in the medical world.  

There should be massive recruitment of anyone who can jab a needle in someone's arm or can be trained to do it and an implementation process designed to get it done asap.  There are plenty of people who need work.  Sign them up.  There are a lot of schools sitting idle.  Convert gymnasiums to vaccination centers.  Set priorities and get people in line.  Create an organization infrastructure to get it done.  I could name several folks who I know from the military who could get this done.  Put a group of veterans in charge who know how to organize, can give orders, recognize the need for urgency and stand back.  

Optimism and Hope

 If there is a day that people look to the future with optimism and hope, it's January 1st of every year.  No matter how the previous year turned out, most of us look to the future with optimism and hope.  And why not?  2020 has brought more challenges to the entire planet than perhaps any year in recent history.  I say recent because there have been a lot worse years than 2020 in human history, but this year has been fundamentally challenging to most.  I don't need to detail all those challenges, but I bet every person has felt a sense of despair at one time or another .  But the arrival of a new year brings with it a natural desire for a fresh start.  And no matter what your circumstances, looking forward with hope, optimism, and a determination that things will be better in the future is only good for your soul...and your psyche,

As for me, I'm walking into 2021 with a clear heart and mind.  If you owe me, don't worry about it.  If you wronged me, it's all good, lesson learned.  If you're angry with me you won.  I've let it go.  If you feel I've wronged you, I apologize.  It wasn't intentional.  I'm grateful for every experience that I've received.  Life is too short for pent-up anger, holding of grudges and extra stress or pain.  Here's to 2021 and remember, forgiving someone is for you so you don't block your blessings.  Make 2021 a year of positivity and a season of forgiveness.  HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!

Loser

 I was generally a supporter of Trump and his policies over the past 4 years.  Sometimes it was very difficult as his arrogant personality and gigantic ego frequently blurred the good that he was doing. And not only was there good, the other side was bad.  As in Socialist bad.  So I hoped he would would be reelected.  But at some point as the election drew near, it became obvious that he had alienated too many people and was in great danger.  People just grew tired of his abrasiveness, his focus on himself, and his chaotic administration.  When he lost, I wasn't surprised.  A good example is the Philadelphia area.  He lost the city last time but won the suburbs.  This time he lost the city by even more and lost the suburbs.  Normal, middle of the road people, especially women, were just fed up and wanted a change.  

I'm sure he has people around him and in the Republican Party that provided this analysis, but he wasn't listening.  I guess it's not a big surprise that he has acted the way he has.  He has denied reality, surrounded himself with sycophants and village idiots, and resisted any notion that he lost.  His "team" has filed untold lawsuits and they've all been thrown out for lack of evidence.  And these are sometimes judges he appointed.  So it's over.

I thought at some point he would act like a President and concede graciously.  But I don't think that is to be.  He will pout and blame and threaten to the end.  It's a sad day and like nothing I've ever seen.  And it is exhausting.  Three weeks to go.  It will get worse as Jan 20 gets closer.  

Masks and Social Distancing

 If you've read at all you know I live in Southern California.  And if you're breathing and even partially aware of what's going on in the world, you know that California is an epicenter for the COVID19 pandemic.  The infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are pretty eye opening.  People are frightened and the ICU's are filling up.  People with small businesses like restaurants and other service businesses are getting killed by being shut down by the governmental lockdown.  The State government in my opinion hasn't responded very well to the problem because they've adopted a "one size fits all" solution. And that solution is to close everything down.  But that is a whole other story,

Since my wife and I are of...ahem...a certain age, we've been very careful about our activities outside our home.  We've worn masks and kept a social distance when going out to stores, restaurants (when we could), stayed outside when possible, and limiting our interactions with others.  We've spent most of our time walking our two precious Labs, reading, playing games, doing chores around the house, and really just watching everything we do.  I continue to play golf, ride my new eBike, and partake of Rotary via Zoom but personal experiences are few and far between.  The exception is our interactions with our daughter, her husband and our three granddaughters.  They have been very careful and I think they are conducting their lives somewhat so that they can interact with us, which is so appreciated.  Seeing them really gives us a boost.  And seeing our son and his family on the East coast is just out of the question.  Thank goodness for Zoom and FaceTime.  Like everyone, we look forward to the day when we can be vaccinated and life can start to return to normal.  But I think that will be a while, so in the meantime we continue to do what we need to do to protect ourselves and others.  

When the pandemic was gaining momentum, the conventional wisdom was that only the elderly with co-morbidities were in danger.  Those in senior centers and older people with other health problems were doomed if they got the virus.  But as time has evolved, the stories of the virus killing people of all ages seems to be more common.  So now we know that the virus can be deadly for anyone and it isn't really very predictable how someone will be affected.  One person may not even know they have it, the next person will get mildly ill, the next will struggle and the next will die.  And it's difficult to predict how it will impact each individual.  

Having said all that, I continue to be amazed by number of idiots surrounding me.  I continue to be amazed at people discounting the wearing of masks and social distancing.  I've heard people say that wearing a mask takes away our freedoms.  WHAT?!?  Once again that is just idiotic.  If it does nothing else, it offers some basic protection.  You can read just one of a million articles on why to wear a mask here.  That someone would object to wearing a mask and practicing social distancing is just disrespectful to everyone around them.  It's infuriating and idiotic.  But don't get me started! :)  So please...when you go out, wear a fucking mask and practice social distancing.  It's not that hard.  It's not an abridge to your freedoms.  Have some respect for others.  Don't be an idiot.

Giving Thanks

Year after year Thanksgiving is a special day.  It's a day to pause, reflect and give thanks.  In these troubled times that is sometimes difficult.  After all, 2020 is a year like no other that most of us have experienced.  The pandemic has brought with it a level of trauma and angst that is just not a normal part of life.  The death, isolation and fear is with us all every day.  And it's difficult to escape as it's invaded almost every facet of life.  

Adding to the trauma caused by a virus, the fabric of our culture seems torn.  After the last election, and really the last four years, we are clearly a country divided down the middle in how we view almost every aspect of our government, our people, and how we live our lives.  Whole sections of the country view other sections with disdain.  Many government decisions that impact us every day seem arbitrary, capricious and designed to favor a few over the many.  Frustration abounds.  

We are told constantly that there are large portions of the population who are racist, hateful, prejudiced against those not like them, and mysogynistic that want to turn back the clock and throw many of their fellow citizens in chains.  Or that there are whole sections of the country who are weak, socialistic, unappreciative, lazy, corrupt takers who want to destroy the country.  Instead of working together to solve problems we seem to have let our differences dominate our thinking about each other.  Instead of looking ahead we tend to look backwards.  And the historical perspective can be used in many devious ways by those ascribing to the validity of our ills.

And yet....we are all still Americans.  We all come together to overcome trials and tribulations.  It's been proven to be the case over and over.  December 7, 1941 and September 11, 2001 come to mind.  But it's also present in every day life.  Visit an area that's just been hit by a natural disaster be it hurricane, tornado, or wild fire.  You'll see an incredible coming together of people helping other people.  Often people they don't even know.  Or visit a place offering help, shelter and food to the homeless and disadvantaged.  Chat with a volunteer about why they are there.  You'll find the dominant answer is because helping people is what we should all be doing.  

So I'm optimistic for the future.  And I give thanks for many, many people, relationships and things in my life.  But I was thinking about the uniqueness of this year.  We hear every day about the heroes among us going above and beyond to help others.  But my primary thanks this year are the ordinary, every day people just doing their best.  Doing their best to keep it together.  Doing their best to be kind. Doing their best to maintain a sense of normalcy when nothing is normal.  The nurses, doctors, ambulance drivers, grocers, truck drivers, small business owners, gym owners, yoga studio owners, restaurant workers, farmers, migrant workers, landscapers, carpenters, electricians, private school teachers and administrators, preachers, and on and on and on.  They are all Indiana Jones!  They all are faced with seemingly insurmountable challenges, are thrown curveballs by local and state governments, have a dedication to the people who work for them that is incredible and get up in the morning and do it again all while keeping it together for their families.  It really comes down to ordinary people doing extraordinary things.  They didn't ask for this pandemic but they are doing their best.  They are Indiana Jones personified.  And they deserve everyone's thanks.

It's Getting Embarrassing

The election is over.  Done.  Finished.  Determined.  And that Trump won't concede is getting more embarrassing and in fact appalling by the day.  Calling it a rigged election, whining that his observers didn't get to observe, and sulking in your corner is just one more item in the four year history of items that have been embarrassing and cringe worthy.  It's un-American and small.  Period.  

Here's the deal.  Like everything else, you can find info on any website or news site that caters to your beliefs to confirm what you think.  But if you make a half assed attempt to find an unbiased and fair analysis, you can't come to any other conclusion than Biden won.  Fair and square.  And it wasn't that close.  In fact, it'll be just about the margin that Trump won in 2016.  And I've said this before but I believe it more and more with each passing day.  Trump lost to...Trump.  He lost because there were a ton of people who liked his policies but were embarrassed and exhausted by his by his actions, tweets and abrasive manner.  Simple as that.  They held their nose and voted for Biden because they yearned for some form of normalcy.  

Now we need to watch the Senate races in Georgia.  If the Republicans keep control of the Senate then what comes in the next 4 years won't be nearly as bad as it could've been.  So let's see how that goes and then start watching or gnashing our teeth.

The Great Barrington Declaration

Have you read The Great Barrington Declaration?  If not, you need to check it out.  Of all the things I've read since the pandemic descended upon us in March, this might make the most sense.  You can find out more info at the website.  

The Great Barrington Declaration

The Great Barrington Declaration – As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection. 

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. 

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza. 

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e.  the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity. 

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. 

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals. 

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

Co-signers

Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners

Dr. Alexander Walker, principal at World Health Information Science Consultants, former Chair of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, USA

Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden

Dr. Angus Dalgleish, oncologist, infectious disease expert and professor, St. George’s Hospital Medical School, University of London, England

Dr. Anthony J Brookes, professor of genetics, University of Leicester, England

Dr. Annie Janvier, professor of pediatrics and clinical ethics, Université de Montréal and Sainte-Justine University Medical Centre, Canada

Dr. Ariel Munitz, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Boris Kotchoubey, Institute for Medical Psychology, University of Tübingen, Germany

Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy, and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA

Dr. David Katz, physician and president, True Health Initiative, and founder of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA

Dr. David Livermore, microbiologist, infectious disease epidemiologist and professor, University of East Anglia, England

Dr. Eitan Friedman, professor of medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Ellen Townsend, professor of psychology, head of the Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, England

Dr. Eyal Shahar, physician, epidemiologist and professor (emeritus) of public health, University of Arizona, USA

Dr. Florian Limbourg, physician and hypertension researcher, professor at Hannover Medical School, Germany

Dr. Gabriela Gomes, mathematician studying infectious disease epidemiology, professor, University of Strathclyde, Scotland

Dr. Gerhard Krönke, physician and professor of translational immunology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany

Dr. Gesine Weckmann, professor of health education and prevention, Europäische Fachhochschule, Rostock, Germany

Dr. Günter Kampf, associate professor, Institute for Hygiene and Environmental Medicine, Greifswald University, Germany

Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden

Dr. Karol Sikora, physician, oncologist, and professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham, England

Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science, Stanford University Medical School, USA

Dr. Lisa White, professor of modelling and epidemiology, Oxford University, England

Dr. Mario Recker, malaria researcher and associate professor, University of Exeter, England

Dr. Matthew Ratcliffe, professor of philosophy, specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, England

Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada

Dr. Michael Jackson, research fellow, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, New Zealand

Dr. Michael Levitt, biophysicist and professor of structural biology, Stanford University, USA. Recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.

Dr. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, England

Dr. Motti Gerlic, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Partha P. Majumder, professor and founder of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India

Dr. Paul McKeigue, physician, disease modeler and professor of epidemiology and public health, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, physician, epidemiologist and public policy expert at the Veterans Administration, USA

Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, infectious disease scientist and associate professor of biostatistics, Baylor University, USA

Dr. Salmaan Keshavjee, professor of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School, USA

Dr. Simon Thornley, epidemiologist and biostatistician, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Dr. Simon Wood, biostatistician and professor, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

Dr. Stephen Bremner,professor of medical statistics, University of Sussex, England

Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism provider and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA

Dr. Udi Qimron, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Ulrike Kämmerer, professor and expert in virology, immunology and cell biology, University of Würzburg, Germany

Dr. Uri Gavish, biomedical consultant, Israel

Dr. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, professor of finance, director of the Behavioural Finance Working Group, Queen Mary University of London, England

 

Don't Be This Guy

Conspiracy theories about the election are really getting out of control.  Everywhere you turn and depending on the source, you can find a story that fulfills any belief that you have.  I am watching otherwise intelligent adults spout stuff that makes me scratch my head pretty hard.  Of course, we all know  that the election was a doozy.  The run up was full of acrimony and accusations like I'm not sure I've seen previously.  Of course, with Trump that's something you'd expect.  But it was pretty bad.  And then Election Day was pretty anticlimactic.  Everyone, literally everyone, wanted to know the outcome.  But it was not to be.  And that isn't necessarily unique.  There have been plenty of times when it took longer than desired to count the votes.  Of course, the mail in ballot scheme was new and bound to result in problems.  Then you add in the media calling winners at various times when there was still uncertainty.  Stir that all with a bunch of protestors on the streets of major cities causing problems and it was a mess.  

It looked like there were 6 states, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that were slow  in counting...and some are still counting.  Meanwhile the media called Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for Biden and that put him over the top.  Of course, there is no official announcement until it's done but that didn't dissuade the Biden camp from claiming victory.  And, surprise, surprise, Trump dug in.  So now he has an army of lawyers out looking for shenanigans and filing lawsuits.  Will they go anywhere?  I'm not buying it.  I've looked at the numbers and I don't see how Trump overcomes the lead unless they find major, major irregularities.  Of course, if you want there to be irregularities you can find a source to feed your paranoia.  If that's your schtick, knock yourself out.  But please...stop sending me conspiracy theory videos, memes and stories via email, text, FB Messenger and any other medium you can think of.  I'm not opening them.  I'm deleting them.  So save yourself the effort.  

So I think it's essentially over.  I could be wrong, but I don't see any way that Trump is the President on January 20.  If there's something you want to be passionate about, be passionate about the two Senatorial elections in Georgia.  That's where it's at now.  If the Republicans hold the Senate, the game is very different for the next two years.  So watch that.

Everyone one has been stressed by this election.  Incredibly stressed.  Add in Covid and it only makes it worse.  So take my advice and give it a break.  Here's the top ten things you can do instead of acting like "this guy" over the election that you can't do one thing about anyway.

10.  Go fishing, or golfing, or running or whatever

9.  Get that project done around the house that you've been putting off

8.  Work on learning a new language or musical instrument

7.  Give your kids more help than they need with their homework.  You'll like it.

6.  Put more effort into your work.  Do something above and beyond.

5.  Take some time to read something that you've been putting off

4.  Volunteer at a local food bank or something similar to help people

3.  Knock on your neighbors door and ask them if they'd like to go for a walk

2.  Play with your kids.  Doesn't matter what.  Just play with them.

1.  Hug your wife, husband or significant other.  The days are short.  And they are limited.  Remember what Budda said..."The trouble is, you think you have time"

Three Days Later

The run up to the 2020 general election was excruciating for most of us.  At least the people I've talked to have been disheartened.  There could be a lot of ways to describe it.  "The gloves came off" might be a good one.  The vitriol, the hate, the low-blows, the wailing and gnashing of teeth were omnipotent on both sides.  Whether it was Trump at his rallies or his surrogates on media or Biden when he raised his head out of his bunker or his surrogates doing the same thing as Trump's, it was ugly, disheartening, and exhausting.  At least it was for me and many others.  At some point I just stopped paying attention and tried to live my life.  But the pervasiveness of it was a big distraction.

I guess the good news is that I recognize that this isn't some unique aspect of this year's election.  It's happened before.  Do a little studying about our history of elections and you can't help but find some really bad behavior.  So in some sense, this is business as usual, especially when there is a candidate that raises as much angst as Trump.

When Tuesday came around I had some amount of hope that the counting would proceed as it always has, and we'd have a winner forthwith.  But alas, it was not to be.  And of course, I knew that.  I just hoped it would be cut and dried.  

So now we're in limbo awaiting the continuing count in 4 or 5 states.  It's looking like, as I write this (Friday at Noon) that Biden has multiple routes to the 270 votes needed for the Presidency and Trump only has one or two.  In other words, it's not looking good for Trump.  However, that doesn't take into account any lawsuits and court decisions.  

It's perplexing to me that there are just a handful of states that are having difficulty.  And of course, that raises suspicion.  The conspiracy theory nuts are crawling out of the woodwork to stir the pot.  And normally I'd discount them.  But this is 2020 and the year of Trump so I'm not so sure.  Hatred drives people to do strange and desperate things.  Some of the stories about ballot irregularities seem credible and are certainly cause for investigation.  But, it's difficult for me to think that whatever they are that they would make a difference.  In any state the margin favoring the winner is usually not just a few votes.  Or even a few hundred.  There is usually a more substantial margin for victory.  But we have to let it play out.  There is a lot of drama, accusations, protests, and weird visual imagery.  It's messy.  But it's also democracy.  Above all else, the integrity of the system needs to be upheld.  And before you say that the one side or the other is to blame for lack of integrity, save it.  Both sides are to blame.  Both sides have tried shenanigans.  Both sides have made outrageous claims.  So the best thing would be for everyone to just calm down and let it play out.

I have some takeaways from this election, and really our whole political atmosphere.  

1. Trump lost to...Trump.  I've said in this blog previously that he is a gigantic jackass and he proved it over and over during the run up to the election.  His tweets and continual half-truths turned a lot of people off.  Not just a few, a lot.  If I were voting for just the two men, I would've voted for Biden.  Because Trump is an obnoxious jerk.  But, and it's a big but, I believe his policies were much more in tune with what the average American wants and needs.  So I stuck with him.  And I have to say I will not be surprised at all if he ultimately doesn't win.
2. There is no mandate.  Not even close.  If Biden prevails at least he won the popular vote.  But no one on either side can claim a mandate.  If this isn't the time to reach across the aisle and and try to work together, I don't know when it would be.  But Biden will have enormous pressure to move farther left.  If that happens, there'll be a Republican sweep in 2024.  The country is simply not there.
3. Trump and the Republicans blew it when they railed against the mail in ballots.  That was clearly going to happen.  Instead of embracing it, they tried to obstruct and denigrate it.  They could have turned it to their advantage, but instead it probably beat them.  
4. Biden isn't the ogre and monster he was made out to be.  Oh he's a swamp dweller and has never really done anything in 47 years in politics, but by most accounts from colleagues over the years, he's a pretty good guy.  The big dust up about his son was clearly political theater.  At least that's how it appeared to me.  
5. Kamala Harris is the most unlikable politician in America.  And that's just not me folks.  She has never done anything substantive.  She has mannerisms that are like nails on a chalkboard.  She blows with the wind.  And when she was climbing to the top in California, that's not all she blew.  We all better hope that Joe's health hangs in for 4 years, because she would be a nightmare.  Unless there is a miracle, I don't see her as a force in 2024
6. The media?  Well, what I can say about the media?  They (all of them) have lost me.  I essentially don't believe them.  A few months ago I started watching several different channels a day for a few minutes to get the flavor of their reporting.  After a very short time I could predict the spin that they would put on their stories.  The most obnoxious (NBC) are now unwatchable for me.  Their smugness turns my stomach.  The vast majority of the media today are telling a story that is aligned with the messaging of their corporate owners.  Figure out who owns them (and that isn't difficult) and you'll know how they are going to spin.  Finding objective, honest reporting is almost impossible.  They should be ashamed of themselves, but of course they aren't.  Most media types on the national stage care about accolades, power, fame and money.  Full stop.
7. The polling companies should be hanging their heads in shame.  And I don't know how they recover.  They were wrong about virtually everything!  At their worst, some of these polls caused people to stay home.  And that is shameful.  They also contributed to media lies.  
8. 2020 (assuming we lose the Presidency) isn't all bad for conservatives.  We picked up members of the House, we picked up state legislatures, and most importantly, I think Senate will not flip or at least wind up 50-50.  In a republic such as ours with checks and balances, that is a huge check.  We'll have to see in the coming months how it plays out (because of runoffs in Georgia) but I'm hopeful.  The other thing to anticipate is 2022.  Assuming Biden screws up enough and tradition of the incumbent party losing seats in the mid-terms, it is likely that the Republicans will pick up seats in both houses in 2022.  So the checks will continue. 
9. There's a story out there that Pelosi may lose her Speaker's job.  Don't count on it.  She is smart and cagey.  She'll likely remain in power at all costs.
10. 2024 should be very interesting.  Kamala will try to be the presumptive Democratic nominee but I just don't see it.  I think Buttigieg will be the favorite.  Maybe Cuomo.  Maybe Booker.  The Republican side will be interesting once again.  I think Nikki Halley, Tim Scott and Marco Rubio will be favorites.  Like Kamala, I don't see Pence as a serious player.  Could Ted Cruz gain traction?  Whoever it is on the Republican side will have a built in difficulty in that they will not be able to whip up the emotions of being an outsider like Trump did.  It's a long way to 2024 but the nature of our political life is that it starts today.  Distressing isn't it?
11. I think (hope) that the last 4 years and 2020 should discourage multi-billionaire businessmen to enter the fray for the Presidency.  Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg embarrassed themselves.  And wasted a lot of money and their message fell flat.  Andrew Yang did okay but wasted a lot of money.  Trump won because he was Trump.  Larger than life and tough as nails.  Don't know that there are any others out there like that.
12. The nuts on the fringes of both parties didn't prevail.  Whether it's Antifa or BLM on the left or the Proud Boys on the right or all the other kooks out there causing division, they just stirred up a lot of trouble and ultimately were not a force.  The 150M Americans that voted were the force.  If we start to move back to some sort of normalcy and civility, my most fervent hope is that both parties will repudiate the radicals, looters and rioters.  

So it is evolving.  I'm pessimistic that Trump will win, but there could be court action that will delay what I think is inevitable.  It would be nice if he would take the high road and concede after a decent amount of time and the outcome becomes obvious.  But...that's not Trump.   Not even close.